The central idea from the UN's creation is that avoiding another total war, especially in a nuclear age, should be the ultimate priority. Engaging in transactional geopolitics and managing great power tensions without this core focus significantly increases the risk of a catastrophic global conflict.

The post-WWII global framework, including international law, was a fragile agreement primarily enforced by the US. Its erosion is leading to a "might makes right" reality where nations like Russia, China, and the US act unilaterally in their perceived self-interest, abandoning the pretense of shared rules.

The current global disarray is often misdiagnosed. The system truly at risk is the deeper, 80-year-old framework created post-WWII to prevent great power war. This is a more profound rupture than the fraying of the 30-year-old, US-led post-Cold War order.

To manage global shifts, Alexander Stubb advocates for reforming institutions like the UN Security Council to give rising nations more power. This strategy aims to secure their buy-in for a rules-based system, arguing it's more stable than building separate alliances of middle powers outside of existing frameworks.

History shows that major transformations of the international order, like the League of Nations or the UN/Bretton Woods system, only gain sufficient political will after the devastation of a global war. The failed attempt to reset after the Cold War suggests that without such a cataclysm, only small, incremental changes are possible.

The UN Secretary-General's influence during the Cold War wasn't just about mediating between the US and USSR. It was politically energized and supported by a powerful bloc of newly decolonized Afro-Asian states that saw the UN as a defender of their sovereignty.

After the Cold War, the UN was retooled to manage internal conflicts and deploy peacekeepers. This shift, driven by a unipolar moment with fewer state-vs-state wars, meant it moved away from its classic role as a high-level mediator, leaving it unprepared for today's resurgence of interstate conflict.

The decision to place the UN headquarters in New York (the world's media center) and the Bretton Woods institutions in Washington D.C. (the US political center) was a deliberate Anglo-American strategy. It was designed to anchor the new international order to American political will and public influence.

The future world order hinges on the alignment of the Global South. Alexander Stubb argues that Western powers must use "values-based realism" and "dignified foreign policy" to win over key nations like India, Brazil, and South Africa to a rules-based system, as they are the decisive players in the struggle.