Leading LLMs can now replicate a two-hour human software engineering task with 50% accuracy. This capability is doubling every seven months, signaling an urgent need for organizations to adapt their data infrastructure, security, and governance to leverage this exponential growth.
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Block's CTO quantifies the impact of their internal AI agent, Goose. AI-forward engineering teams save 8-10 hours weekly, a figure he considers the absolute baseline. He notes, "this is the worst it will ever be," suggesting exponential gains are coming.
METR's research reveals a consistent, exponential trend in AI capabilities over the last five years. When measured by the length of tasks an AI can complete (based on human completion time), this 'time horizon' has been doubling approximately every seven months, providing a single, robust metric for tracking progress.
AI's impact on coding is unfolding in stages. Phase 1 was autocomplete (Copilot). We're now in Phase 2, defined by interactive agents where developers orchestrate tasks with prompts. Phase 3 will be true automation, where agents independently handle complete, albeit simpler, development workflows without direct human guidance.
AI coding has advanced so rapidly that tools like Claude Code are now responsible for their own development. This signals a fundamental shift in the software engineering profession, requiring programmers to master a new, higher level of abstraction to remain effective.
The most significant productivity gains come from applying AI to every stage of development, including research, planning, product marketing, and status updates. Limiting AI to just code generation misses the larger opportunity to automate the entire engineering process.
A key metric for AI progress is the size of a task (measured in human-hours) it can complete. This metric is currently doubling every four to seven months. At this exponential rate, an AI that handles a two-hour task today will be able to manage a two-week project autonomously within two years.
AI acts as a massive force multiplier for software development. By using AI agents for coding and code review, with humans providing high-level direction and final approval, a two-person team can achieve the output of a much larger engineering organization.
While the long-term trend for AI capability shows a seven-month doubling time, data since 2024 suggests an acceleration to a four-month doubling time. This faster pace has been a much better predictor of recent model performance, indicating a potential shift to a super-exponential trajectory.
The current model of a developer using an AI assistant is like a craftsman with a power tool. The next evolution is "factory farming" code, where orchestrated multi-agent systems manage the entire development lifecycle—planning, implementation, review, and testing—moving it from a craft to an industrial process.
The focus on AI writing code is narrow, as coding represents only 10-20% of the total software development effort. The most significant productivity gains will come from AI automating other critical, time-consuming stages like testing, security, and deployment, fundamentally reshaping the entire lifecycle.
