The most immediate AI milestone is not singularity, but "Economic AGI," where AI can perform most virtual knowledge work better than humans. This threshold, predicted to arrive within 12-18 months, will trigger massive societal and economic shifts long before a "Terminator"-style superintelligence becomes a reality.

Block's CTO quantifies the impact of their internal AI agent, Goose. AI-forward engineering teams save 8-10 hours weekly, a figure he considers the absolute baseline. He notes, "this is the worst it will ever be," suggesting exponential gains are coming.

Unlike traditional software that optimizes for time-in-app, the most successful AI products will be measured by their ability to save users time. The new benchmark for value will be how much cognitive load or manual work is automated "behind the scenes," fundamentally changing the definition of a successful product.

By training AI on your personal data, arguments, and communication style, you can leverage it as a creative partner. This allows skilled professionals to reduce the time for complex tasks, like creating a new class, from over 16 hours to just four.

Julian Schrittwieser, a key researcher from Anthropic and formerly Google DeepMind, forecasts that extrapolating current AI progress suggests models will achieve full-day autonomy and match human experts across many industries by mid-2026. This timeline is much shorter than many anticipate.

Silicon Valley insiders, including former Google CEO Eric Schmidt, believe AI capable of improving itself without human instruction is just 2-4 years away. This shift in focus from the abstract concept of superintelligence to a specific research goal signals an imminent acceleration in AI capabilities and associated risks.

OpenAI's new GDPVal framework evaluates AI on real-world knowledge work. It found frontier models produce work rated equal to or better than human experts nearly 50% of the time, while being 100 times faster and cheaper. This provides a direct measure of impending economic transformation.

AI struggles with tasks requiring long and wide context, like software engineering. Because adding a linear amount of context requires an exponential increase in compute power, it cannot effectively manage the complex interdependencies of large projects.

A useful mental model for AGI is child development. Just as a child can be left unsupervised for progressively longer periods, AI agents are seeing their autonomous runtimes increase. AGI arrives when it becomes economically profitable to let an AI work continuously without supervision, much like an independent adult.