Beyond oil, the conflict disrupts supply chains for materials like sulfur and helium, which are essential for producing copper, cobalt, and components used in semiconductor manufacturing. This creates a significant, non-obvious risk to the global tech industry.

The war in Iran is choking the Strait of Hormuz, which handles 20% of global oil. This disruption impacts nearly three times more oil volume than Russia's exports at the start of the Ukraine war, posing a significantly larger threat to the global economy and inflation.

Even a brief closure of the Strait of Hormuz has immediate, lasting effects. Shutting in millions of barrels of oil and LNG damages production facilities, which can take over 60 days to bring back online, ensuring a recession even if the conflict ends quickly.

The Hormuz crisis reveals fragile, non-obvious supply chains. About 30% of the world's helium, essential for making semiconductors and launching SpaceX rockets, comes from Qatar. This illustrates how critical modern technologies depend on materials from politically unstable regions, extending far beyond well-known resources like oil.

A likely outcome of the conflict is Iran establishing control over the Strait of Hormuz and charging tolls for passage. This would mirror Russia's control over the Northern Sea Route, fundamentally altering freedom of navigation and creating a new economic reality where a state actor monetizes a critical global chokepoint.

Energy disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz create a cascade effect far beyond fuel prices. The resulting shortages impact petrochemical and fertilizer production, threatening key inputs for everything from manufacturing and electronics to agriculture and basic services like cooking gas for restaurants.

The disruption in the Persian Gulf affects not just the headline commodities of oil and gas, but also crucial dry bulk goods. Outbound fertilizers and aluminum, along with inbound raw materials for production, are significantly impacted, causing spikes in global markets for these specific goods.

Leading-edge semiconductor manufacturing requires ultra-pure "six nines" helium. This necessitates a completely separate fleet of specialized liquid containers that can never be contaminated with lower-grade helium. This fractures the already constrained logistics network, creating a fragile "supply chain within a supply chain" for the most critical end-users.

The primary vulnerability in the global helium market is not production, but the logistics of its ~3,000 highly specialized liquid ISO containers. Because liquid helium is perishable and vents after ~45 days, any disruption that traps these containers creates a cascading global shortage, as the limited fleet cannot be redeployed quickly.