Effective statecraft integrates diplomacy, military action, and economic pressure as simultaneous, interrelated tools for strategic bargaining. Viewing them as separate, walled-off functions is a common but dangerous misconception that weakens national strategy. All elements of national power must be wielded in concert during competition or conflict.
Engaging only with formal Iranian negotiators while ignoring hardliner factions like the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) leads to failed diplomacy. The IRGC is the true power center in Iran, and any agreement made without their buy-in is unlikely to be honored or effective, as they control the actual military assets.
Expending high-end munitions like JASSM missiles on a secondary adversary like Iran critically depletes stockpiles essential for deterring a primary competitor like China. This creates a significant vulnerability, as the defense industrial base cannot quickly replenish these sophisticated weapons, undermining readiness for a major conflict.
A likely outcome of the conflict is Iran establishing control over the Strait of Hormuz and charging tolls for passage. This would mirror Russia's control over the Northern Sea Route, fundamentally altering freedom of navigation and creating a new economic reality where a state actor monetizes a critical global chokepoint.
Previous administrations didn't attack Iran not due to a failure of nerve but because of a sober assessment of the strategic consequences. They understood that while the U.S. military could execute the strikes, Iran could always close the Strait of Hormuz, and there was no viable long-term plan for victory, making restraint the wiser strategic choice.
Successful conflict resolution may require deploying negotiators who have previously fought against you. During the Sunni Awakening in Iraq, the U.S. used former insurgents because their history gave them credibility with the opposition. This disciplined strategy of using "tainted" but trusted intermediaries is a powerful, albeit counterintuitive, tool.
The President's Daily Brief is not a static document but a process tailored to the sitting president's consumption habits. From film reels for Ronald Reagan to video highlight reels for Donald Trump, the intelligence community has a long history of adapting its format to ensure executive engagement, prioritizing consumption over a standardized medium.
Deploying advanced weapons in lower-threat environments serves as a test run but also provides a strategic gift to major adversaries. China's PLA gains invaluable intelligence on the performance, signatures, and capabilities of new U.S. systems by observing their use against Iran, allowing them to develop countermeasures without any cost or risk.