Contrary to fears that U.S. regulation cedes ground to China, the CCP has strong self-interested reasons to regulate AI. It is highly concerned with internal stability and control, cracking down on AI-driven social disruption and the risk of domestic cyberattacks, independent of Western policy.

China is considering restricting overseas access to its most advanced AI models from firms like Alibaba and ByteDance. This move directly emulates US restrictions on models like GPT-4, signaling a global trend where governments view frontier AI not just as a commercial product, but as a strategic national asset requiring state control.

Despite intense technological competition, both the U.S. and China face a common threat from non-state actors like terrorist or criminal groups acquiring powerful AI models. This shared vulnerability presents a potential opportunity for cooperation on AI regulation and safeguards, even amid broader strategic rivalry.

An AI model capable of executing complex cyberattacks is equally capable of identifying and fixing those same vulnerabilities. A government like China's will likely first deploy the model for defense—patching critical systems—before any public or commercial release, thus mitigating risk.

While the U.S. stalls on AI legislation, China is actively regulating it. This has led to significantly higher public trust and adoption in China (87% trust vs. 32% in the US), creating a more stable environment for AI development and deployment.

The initial thesis was that AI governance would mirror data governance, driven by regulations like GDPR. However, the field now resembles cybersecurity, characterized by incident response, technical assessments, and a constant battle between advancing AI capabilities and necessary oversight mechanisms.

Unlike the US's voluntary approach, Chinese AI developers must register their models with the government before public release. This involved process requires safety testing against a national standard of 31 risks and giving regulators pre-deployment access for approval, creating a de facto licensing regime for consumer AI.

A pragmatic starting point for U.S.-China AI cooperation is to agree on verifiable red lines for proliferating dangerous dual-use capabilities, such as advanced cyberattack tools. This addresses a mutual security interest and builds the institutional trust and processes needed for more ambitious agreements on superintelligence.

Chinese AI firms maintain close, ongoing communication with the Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC), including informal weekly meetings. This relationship ensures regulators are never caught by surprise, making it virtually impossible for a company to release a powerful new model without prior notice.