The US government's intervention in Anthropic's model release has established a new regulatory playbook that OpenAI is now preemptively adopting. This signals a shift toward government-gated AI deployment, where companies seek federal approval before releasing powerful new models to a select group of trusted partners.

Unlike the US's public-private debate over Anthropic's powerful AI model, China's equivalent will involve a more consolidated power dynamic. A closely-held private company will face a much more aggressive government, creating a different and potentially more dramatic outcome for AI control.

China has a pre-existing regulatory body (CAC) and approval processes for AI models. While focused on content, this infrastructure can be extended to include cybersecurity tests, allowing for a more structured response to powerful new models compared to the US's reactive approach.

The intensity of Chinese AI regulation fluctuates with the government's confidence in its domestic industry. When feeling behind (post-ChatGPT), they eased up to foster innovation. After recent successes, they feel more secure and may re-assert stricter, more hands-on control.

Contrary to fears that U.S. regulation cedes ground to China, the CCP has strong self-interested reasons to regulate AI. It is highly concerned with internal stability and control, cracking down on AI-driven social disruption and the risk of domestic cyberattacks, independent of Western policy.

Contrary to the argument that regulation stifles innovation, China has implemented extensive AI regulations over the past four years. During this same period, its AI technology has made significant inroads, challenging the notion that a laissez-faire approach is essential for competitiveness.

While the U.S. stalls on AI legislation, China is actively regulating it. This has led to significantly higher public trust and adoption in China (87% trust vs. 32% in the US), creating a more stable environment for AI development and deployment.

Confronted with a model capable of widespread hacking, China's government is expected to orchestrate a limited initial release. Access would be granted first to government bodies and critical infrastructure companies to identify and patch vulnerabilities before any public launch.

Unlike the US's voluntary approach, Chinese AI developers must register their models with the government before public release. This involved process requires safety testing against a national standard of 31 risks and giving regulators pre-deployment access for approval, creating a de facto licensing regime for consumer AI.