The explosive growth of prediction markets is driven by regulatory arbitrage. They capture immense value from the highly-regulated sports betting industry by operating under different, less restrictive rules for 'prediction markets,' despite significant product overlap.

The parent company of Campaigns & Elections has a clear M&A thesis: acquire publications in highly regulated industries. Their expertise serving the political industry translates to other complex markets like cannabis, creating a portfolio of brands that help professionals navigate regulatory challenges.

Unlike Canada's top-down legalization, the US's state-by-state approach has built significant, isolated infrastructure. Federal approval would unleash this capacity for interstate commerce, allowing production to consolidate in ideal locations and dramatically reshaping the national supply chain.

Biohackers are creating a cottage industry by sending unregulated peptides to independent labs for purity testing. They then publish these results, creating a reputation system for sellers. This parallels the evolution of the cannabis market, suggesting a significant business opportunity as the sector formalizes.

The current challenging market forces cannabis startups to be incredibly resourceful, mirroring the industry's long history of operating in grey or illicit markets. This "survival of the fittest" environment ultimately strengthens the best companies.

Because cannabis is a Schedule I drug, tax code 280E prevents businesses from deducting standard operating expenses, resulting in crippling effective tax rates. Federal rescheduling would eliminate this, instantly making many struggling companies profitable overnight.

The bill federally legalized hemp, creating a loophole for brands to legally ship THC products direct-to-consumer and run normal CPG ads. This gave hemp-based companies a massive efficiency advantage over state-regulated operators burdened by taxes and marketing restrictions.

XN's investment in Figma illustrates a key strategy: capitalize on market dislocation. After regulators blocked Adobe's acquisition, Figma offered a best-in-class asset with a strong balance sheet (bolstered by a break fee) at a significant discount, creating a highly asymmetric, bounded-downside risk-reward profile.

The market often loses interest in resource companies after the initial discovery pop. This 'orphan period,' when the project is being built and de-risked but not yet generating revenue, is the ideal time to invest at a discount before production begins.