Shopify's VP of Engineering reveals a striking metric for their growth: the peak traffic and sales volume they handle on Black Friday becomes their normal, everyday traffic level just six months later. This relentless scaling requirement means they are perpetually engineering for a future that is multiples larger than their current peak.
Related Insights
It's tempting to postpone foundational work like data integration until the slower post-holiday period. However, the holiday sales surge provides the richest dataset for testing, learning, and setting up automations. Building this foundation during Q4 allows insights to compound, driving more sustainable growth throughout the following year.
The "dirty secret" of retail is that many businesses lose money for 46 weeks a year and rely entirely on the high-margin period from Thanksgiving to New Year's to "print money." This intense seasonality makes the holiday quarter an existential period for the entire sector.
A key differentiator for companies that scale successfully is their focus. Failing companies obsess over and incentivize leading indicators like MQL volume. Successful ones use them only as directional guides while remaining fixated on lagging indicators like revenue.
Processes that work at $30M are inadequate at $45M. Leaders in hyper-growth environments (30-50% YoY) must accept that their playbooks have a short shelf-life and require constant redesign. This necessitates hiring leaders who can build for the next level, not just manage the current one.
In a candid admission of an aggressive competitive tactic, Shopify's President Harley Finkelstein said he used to post "should have been on Shopify" on X whenever a large retailer's website went down during Black Friday, turning their biggest vulnerability into a real-time public sales pitch.
On Black Friday, Shopify projects its live sales globe onto the Las Vegas Sphere. Each confetti burst on the massive screen represents a new entrepreneur making their very first sale, reframing the event as a global celebration of entrepreneurship rather than just a sales metric.
During a 5x growth period, Fixer's support response times went from 5 minutes to 5 hours, jeopardizing customer trust. The team had only planned for their growth strategies failing, not succeeding. This highlights the critical need to build infrastructure for best-case scenarios, not just worst-case ones.
Applying industry-average growth rates to an emerging category leader is a critical mistake. A business like Shopify, with a powerful flywheel and network effects, is a power law winner that defies regression to the mean of its stagnant competitors. Its performance is simply not comparable.
A key to Resident's Black Friday success is being comfortable with poor efficiency metrics in the weeks leading up to the sale. They know the investment will pay off when the holiday surge "right-sizes" the overall numbers. This requires "intestinal fortitude" to not pull back spend prematurely.
Most product orgs focus on the 6-12 month medium term, which is the hardest to predict and control. Shopify's design teams are pushed to ignore this messy middle and focus only on the very long-term North Star and the very short-term actions they can take today, creating a more effective planning process.
