Since today's AI companies grow too fast to have multi-year renewal data, investors must adapt their diligence. The focus shifts from long-term retention to short-cycle retention and, crucially, deep product engagement. High usage is the best leading indicator of future stickiness and value.
Vanity metrics like total revenue can be misleading. A startup might acquire many low-priced, low-usage customers without solving a core problem. Deep, consistent user engagement statistics are a much stronger indicator of genuine, 'found' demand than top-line numbers alone.
Metrics like product utilization, ROI, or customer happiness (NPS) are often correlated with retention but don't cause it. Focusing on these proxies wastes energy. Instead, identify the one specific event (e.g., a team sending 2,000 Slack messages) that causally leads to non-churn.
Lin warns that much of today's AI revenue is 'experimental,' where customers test solutions without long-term commitment. He calls annualizing this pilot revenue 'a joke.' He advises founders to prioritize slower, high-quality, high-retention revenue over fast, low-quality growth that will eventually churn.
The current AI hype cycle can create misleading top-of-funnel metrics. The only companies that will survive are those demonstrating strong, above-benchmark user and revenue retention. It has become the ultimate litmus test for whether a product provides real, lasting value beyond the initial curiosity.
To evaluate AI's role in building relationships, marketers must look beyond transactional KPIs. Leading indicators of success include sustained engagement, customers volunteering more information, and recommending the experience to others. These metrics quantify brand trust and empathy—proving the brand is earning belief, not just attention.
While pipeline is important, the real signal of a successful AI-driven business is the depth of customer engagement. Are customers expanding beyond their initial use case? Are developers integrating your tool into core workflows? Are communities actively discussing you? These leading indicators show a stronger foundation than top-of-funnel metrics alone.
Unlike SaaS, where high gross margins are key, an AI company with very high margins likely isn't seeing significant use of its core AI features. Low margins signal that customers are actively using compute-intensive products, a positive early indicator.
While impressive, hypergrowth from zero to $100M+ ARR can be a red flag. The mechanics enabling such speed, like low-friction monthly subscriptions, often correlate with low switching costs, weak product depth, and poor long-term retention, resembling consumer apps more than enterprise SaaS.
Because AI products improve so rapidly, it's crucial to proactively bring lapsed users back. A user who tried the product a year ago has no idea how much better it is today. Marketing pushes around major version launches (e.g., v3.0) can create a step-change in weekly active users.
To value high-growth, PLG-driven AI companies, segment the user base. The low-end cohort often has extremely high churn (e.g., 60-80%) and should be mentally modeled as a marketing expense for brand awareness. The company's real value is in the high-end cohorts, which exhibit strong net dollar retention (140%+) and enterprise stickiness.