The best consolidation returns come from identifying a fragmented industry before it becomes a popular PE theme. Entering in the "first inning" avoids competing with dozens of other platforms, which inevitably drives up acquisition multiples for both platforms and add-ons, eroding returns.
Unsexy markets like plumbing or law have less competition, higher profit margins, and customers who are more receptive to expertise. This creates an environment for faster growth, akin to driving on an empty road.
Large media companies are slow to adopt new platforms like Substack. However, once one major player makes a move (e.g., Bloomberg launching Substacks), it triggers a "fast follow" reaction from competitors. This predictable herd mentality creates strategic windows for creators on those platforms to pursue acquisitions.
Classifying acquisition targets into three tiers—Hubs (new regions with strong management), Spokes (smaller tuck-ins), and Route Buys (customer lists)—creates a disciplined strategy. This ensures each acquisition serves a specific, pre-defined purpose in the overall consolidation and has a corresponding deal structure.
Students often believe their target industry is too crowded. Bravo counters this, recalling how a top PE head told him the industry was 'taken' in 1997. He argues the next generation can build bigger firms by ignoring such cyclical pessimism and focusing on execution.
The most lucrative exit for a startup is often not an IPO, but an M&A deal within an oligopolistic industry. When 3-4 major players exist, they can be forced into an irrational bidding war driven by the fear of a competitor acquiring the asset, leading to outcomes that are even better than going public.
Companies like Amazon (from books to cloud) and Intuitive Surgical (from one specific surgery to many) became massive winners by creating new markets, not just conquering existing ones. Investors should prioritize businesses with the innovative capacity to expand their TAM, as initial market sizes are often misleadingly small.
The era of generating returns through leverage and multiple expansion is over. Future success in PE will come from driving revenue growth, entering at lower multiples, and adding operational expertise, particularly in the fragmented middle market where these opportunities are more prevalent.
The most effective investment strategy is to first identify a growing consumer category with strong tailwinds (e.g., Mediterranean food). Only then should you invest in or build the company with the potential to become the dominant player, capitalizing on the winner-take-all dynamics of the industry.
Viewing acquisitions as "consolidations" rather than "roll-ups" shifts focus from simply aggregating EBITDA to strategically integrating culture and operations. This builds a cohesive company that drives incremental organic growth—the true source of value—rather than just relying on multiple arbitrage from increased scale.
Top compounders intentionally target and dominate small, slow-growing niche markets. These markets are unattractive to large private equity firms, allowing the compounder to build a durable competitive advantage and pricing power with little interference from deep-pocketed rivals.