While public crises like the GameStop frenzy are intense, they are acute. A prolonged market downturn is a "slow burn" that grinds down morale and tests a leader's resilience over hundreds of days, making it the more difficult challenge.
Emilie Choi explains that market downturns are beneficial because they drive out short-term "mercenaries," allowing dedicated builders to thrive. Her promotion came from proving she could operate effectively during a downturn, rewarding her resilience when others fled.
The ability to remain calm and steady through market cycles and intense pressure is a distinct, non-negotiable skill for senior leaders. The Lovesack CEO has seen many otherwise smart and talented people fail because they couldn't manage the psychological strain, making this resilience a key differentiator.
Contrary to popular belief, the 1929 crash wasn't an instantaneous event. It took a full year for public confidence to erode and for the new reality to set in. This illustrates that markets can absorb financial shocks, but they cannot withstand a sustained, spiraling loss of confidence.
During a stock downturn, Rhythm's CFO showed his team historical charts of successful biotech firms like Vertex and Regeneron that also endured long periods of low valuation. This tangible proof of long-term potential in a volatile industry served as a powerful tool to maintain employee morale and focus.
Entrepreneurs in bull markets often misattribute success to skill alone. A market downturn reveals the true difficulty of business, humbling even the most confident founders and forcing a reassessment of strategies that previously seemed foolproof. True resilience is tested when market conditions change.
People have an extreme aversion to acute pain. They will accept any level of chronic pain—like a company slowly bleeding out over five years—to avoid the single, difficult conversation or dramatic change required to stop the losing. This explains the long, slow death of many companies.
AQR's Cliff Asnes highlights that a prolonged period of underperformance is psychologically and professionally more damaging than a sharper, shorter drop. Enduring a multi-year drawdown erodes client confidence and forces painful business decisions, even if the manager's conviction in their strategy remains high.
CEO Vlad Tenev considers 2022 the "refounding" of Robinhood. The business model strategically shifted from catering primarily to first-time investors to focusing on more sophisticated, resilient active traders. This pivot drove a 5x increase in product velocity (from one to five major new products per year) and built a more cycle-agnostic business.
During a crisis, a CEO's job is twofold. First, ensure the best people are activated and fully supported. Second, focus on high-leverage tasks only the CEO can perform, like public communication or raising emergency capital overnight.
A rising tide lifts all boats. The true test of a founder partnership emerges during downturns. Diligence should focus on teasing out traits like adaptability, humility, and accountability, which predict how a founder will react when plans inevitably go awry.