To assess an insurer, analyze their loss development triangles over 5-10 years. Consistently favorable development (reserves proving too high) signals a conservative, high-integrity management team that prioritizes balance sheet strength over short-term earnings.
During the 2023 banking crisis, IBKR’s holdings of short-dated bonds allowed it to benefit from rising rates while competitors with long-dated assets suffered. This shows a conservative balance sheet is not just defensive but an offensive tool to win client trust and outperform during turmoil.
Success for a year or even five is common; success for decades is rare and contains unique lessons. Prioritize durability above all else by studying and speaking with people who have maintained high performance over extremely long periods. This provides a filter for timeless, compoundable wisdom.
Despite its decline in popularity, Tim Guinness uses balance sheet gearing (debt to net tangible assets) as a critical risk tool. His experience through multiple banking crises taught him that when total debt and creditors exceed twice the net tangible assets, a company requires careful scrutiny.
To truly understand an investment's resilience, analyze its performance over a 20-year span, paying close attention to how it navigated major downturns like the dot-com bubble and the 2008 financial crisis. This deep historical analysis provides a clearer picture of stability than recent performance alone.
Investment research suggests the significant performance signal in governance isn't achieving a perfect score, but rather avoiding companies in the worst decile. The key is to steer clear of clear red flags—like misaligned boards or poor capital allocation—as this is where underperformance is most clearly correlated.
The book "The Fairfax Way" reveals the company's early success wasn't merely from acquiring insurers at low valuations. The critical, often overlooked element was the immense time, money, and work required to revamp and stabilize these acquired operations to an acceptable level, a key lesson for value investors.
Unlike credit rating agencies which lacked direct financial consequences for bad ratings, this model creates "skin in the game." By structuring as a managing general agent (MGA), the auditor's compensation is tied to the profitability of the insurance policies, creating a powerful incentive to maintain rigorous, honest standards.
In a world of transactional relationships and fleeting reputations, the only reliable filter for character is time. Look for individuals who have maintained the same close team and friends for decades. This longevity is a strong signal of loyalty, integrity, and trustworthiness.
Before analyzing a balance sheet or income statement, read the footnotes. They act as a legend, revealing the specific accounting choices, definitions, and modifications management has made. This context is essential to accurately interpret the numbers and understand the underlying business reality.
Most analysts default to the income statement. Tom Gaynor reads the balance sheet and cash flow statement first. This prioritizes financial strength and actual cash generation over reported earnings, a clear indicator of a long-term, balance-sheet-first investment philosophy.