During product discovery, Amazon teams ask, "What would be our worst possible news headline?" This pre-mortem practice forces the team to identify and confront potential weak points, blind spots, and negative outcomes upfront. It's a powerful tool for looking around corners and ensuring all bases are covered before committing to build.

Leaders often conflate seeing a risk with understanding it. In 2020, officials saw COVID-19 but didn't understand its airborne spread. Conversely, society understands the risk of drunk driving but fails to see it most of the time. Truly managing risk requires addressing both visibility and comprehension.

Extend premortems beyond failure scenarios to consider overwhelming success. This reframes success as a potential failure if you're unprepared, helping teams proactively identify and plan for scaling risks and organizational readiness before they become critical issues.

In extreme uncertainty like a fire or nuclear incident, waiting for perfect information is impossible. Effective leaders take small, iterative actions to gather data and update their strategy in real-time. This approach of 'acting your way into knowing' is more effective than trying to know everything before acting.

Working at 311 gives employees a unique lens on their city. They begin to see everyday issues, like an improperly discarded TV, not as random annoyances but as specific problems with defined processes and responsible agencies. They mentally map the city's operational 'code.'

To prepare for low-probability, high-impact events, leaders should resist the immediate urge to create action plans. Instead, they must first creatively explore "good, bad, and ugly" scenarios without the pressure for an immediate, concrete solution. This exploration phase is crucial for resilience.

Before starting a project, ask the team to imagine it has failed and write a story explaining why. This exercise in 'time travel' bypasses optimism bias and surfaces critical operational risks, resource gaps, and flawed assumptions that would otherwise be missed until it's too late.

Initially for non-emergencies, NYC's 311 became a vital feedback mechanism during crises. Calls about preserving insulin during a blackout created a new, immediate channel where citizens could inform the city of unforeseen needs, prompting a direct public response.

Hormozi's team didn't just plan for success; they systematically identified every potential point of failure ("choke points") from ad platforms to payment processors. By asking "how would we fail?" and creating contingencies for each scenario, they proactively managed risk for a complex, high-stakes event.