While doubling down on a proven strategy is usually wise, this rule can be broken when a new market offers exponentially greater (e.g., 100x) value per customer for the same operational effort. The potential upside is too significant to ignore, justifying the risk of a strategic test.
Instead of random growth, businesses have five clear expansion paths: serve wealthier clients (upmarket), serve a mass market (downmarket), enter a new vertical (adjacent), generalize your solution (broader), or hyper-specialize (narrower). This provides a strategic map for growth.
When testing a new, potentially higher-value customer segment, the single most important data point to validate is revenue retention. Focus initial efforts on confirming that new customers reorder quickly, as this proves the long-term viability and stacking revenue model of the new market.
When moving beyond your initial niche, target adjacent verticals. For example, a company serving realtors should target mortgage brokers next, not an unrelated field like lawn maintenance. This strategy maximizes the transfer of product features, market knowledge, and potential word-of-mouth.
When deciding between deepening a vertical, adding adjacent ones, or going horizontal, analyze two key factors: the extent of product modification needed and your ability to market and sell to the new audience. This framework simplifies a complex strategic choice.
Growth isn't random; it can be planned along five vectors. From your current market, you can target higher-paying clients (upmarket), a larger volume of smaller clients (downmarket), different industries (adjacent), a wider category (broader), or a more focused sub-niche (narrower).
The highest risk-adjusted return comes from amplifying what already works. The likelihood of a new marketing channel or sales script succeeding is statistically low. Instead of rolling the dice on something new, you should allocate resources to dramatically increase the volume of your proven winners.
Companies like Amazon (from books to cloud) and Intuitive Surgical (from one specific surgery to many) became massive winners by creating new markets, not just conquering existing ones. Investors should prioritize businesses with the innovative capacity to expand their TAM, as initial market sizes are often misleadingly small.
When expanding his law firm, John Morgan uses a 'bullets before bombs' strategy. He first enters a new city with a small, low-cost team and ad budget (the 'bullets') to test viability. Only after seeing positive traction does he commit significant capital and resources (the 'bombs'), de-risking growth.
When evaluating revolutionary ideas, traditional Total Addressable Market (TAM) analysis is useless. VCs should instead bet on founders with a "world-bending vision" capable of inducing a new market, not just capturing an existing one. Have the humility to admit you can't predict market size and instead back the visionary founder.
To balance execution with innovation, allocate 70% of resources to high-confidence initiatives, 20% to medium-confidence bets with significant upside, and 10% to low-confidence, "game-changing" experiments. This ensures delivery on core goals while pursuing high-growth opportunities.