Contrary to popular belief, earnings growth has a very low correlation with decadal stock returns. The primary driver is the change in the valuation multiple (e.g., P/E ratio expansion or contraction). The correlation between 10-year real returns and 10-year valuation changes is a staggering 0.9, while it is tiny for earnings growth.

A key tension in modern investing is that the best businesses often appear perpetually expensive (e.g., 30x+ P/E). However, their ability to continue delivering double-digit returns challenges the core value investing principle of buying at a low multiple, demonstrating the immense power of long-term quality and compounding.

Shelby Davis's core strategy involved buying stocks where earnings would increase and, in parallel, the market would re-rate the stock with a higher P/E multiple. This dual effect created exponential returns far beyond what earnings growth alone could provide, turning a good investment into a multi-bagger.

Despite the market reaching new highs, trading multiples are down 20%. This performance is based on fundamental earnings growth, not inflated multiples like the dot-com boom. This suggests a more stable foundation for the current market.

A company with a 20x P/E could acquire a firm with a 5x P/E using stock. The acquired earnings were then instantly re-rated at the parent's higher multiple, manufacturing EPS growth and creating huge paper gains without any operational improvements. This financial engineering masqueraded as business genius.

For a rapidly compounding business like TBBB, which aims to grow from 3,500 to 15,000 stores, the initial valuation multiple becomes less important over a long-term horizon. The exponential growth in earnings can overwhelm the entry price, similar to early investments in Walmart or Costco.

Contrary to the belief that a low P-E ratio is always better, a high ratio can signify a 'growth stock.' This indicates investors are willing to pay more because the company is reinvesting its earnings into future growth, betting on higher profitability over time.

Contrary to popular belief, the underlying business fundamentals (sales, profits) of value and growth indexes have grown at nearly the same rate this century. The vast performance gap is not due to better business results but rather investors' willingness to pay increasingly higher multiples for growth stocks.

Investors instinctively value the distant future cash flows of elite compounding businesses higher than traditional financial models suggest. This phenomenon, known as hyperbolic discounting, helps explain why these companies consistently command premium multiples, as the market behaves more aligned with this model than standard exponential discounting.