A16Z invested in Substack believing that providing writers with a monetization tool would unlock a new supply of high-quality content. This new supply would, in turn, create its own demand, rather than competing in the existing market for free content.
A16z's "big venture" model was based on two core ideas: first, that Marc Andreessen's "Software is Eating the World" thesis would create 10x more viable companies, and second, that founders required a superior VC "product" with platform services that only scale could provide.
A16Z's investment thesis posits that platform shifts (e.g., on-prem to cloud) create companies 10x larger than the incumbents they replace. They applied this logic to Databricks (vs. Oracle) and Substack (vs. traditional media), arguing against conservative market sizing.
Large media companies are slow to adopt new platforms like Substack. However, once one major player makes a move (e.g., Bloomberg launching Substacks), it triggers a "fast follow" reaction from competitors. This predictable herd mentality creates strategic windows for creators on those platforms to pursue acquisitions.
A16Z's Justine Moore observes that in the nascent AI creator economy, the most reliable monetization strategy isn't ad revenue or brand deals. Instead, creators are finding success by teaching others how to use the complex new tools, selling courses and prompt guides to a massive audience eager to learn the craft.
A16z found its most successful blog posts weren't hot takes on market conditions, but timeless, practical guides like "Good Product Manager." This evergreen content provided real value to entrepreneurs and demonstrated deep operational expertise to LPs, building a more durable brand than fleeting commentary.
Medium is no longer competing for professional content creators building media businesses. Instead, its CEO states the platform is focused on being the best place for "real people"—practitioners and individuals—to share valuable life and work lessons without the pressure of becoming a full-time writer.
To attract top freelance talent, Escape Collective is testing a model that can pay more than Substack. They offer writers a base rate plus a share of the subscription revenue directly generated from their articles, aligning incentives and rewarding high-performing content.
The modern creator economy prioritizes immediate monetization via ads or subscriptions. The older model of patronage—direct financial support from an individual without expectation of direct ROI—can liberate creators from chasing metrics, enabling them to focus on producing high-quality, meaningful work.
Platforms with real human-generated content have a dual revenue opportunity in the AI era. They can serve ads to their human user base while also selling high-value data licenses to companies like Google that need authentic, up-to-date information to train their large language models.
Substack writer Emily Sundberg argues that platforms like Patreon are mistaken to poach established creators from rivals. A better growth strategy is to find underpaid, high-value talent within legacy media and provide them the support to launch their own ventures.