When the IPO window opens, nearly every stakeholder—from bankers and lawyers to VCs and management—is financially motivated to go public. This collective "irrational exuberance" can lead to a rush of mixed-quality companies, perpetuating the industry's historical boom-bust IPO cycles.

A surge in IPOs and M&A isn't driven by pro-business policies, but by a reduction in policy uncertainty. With a clearer, albeit more interventionist, landscape, companies have the confidence to execute major strategic plans they had previously postponed.

The traditional IPO exit is being replaced by a perpetual secondary market for elite private companies. This new paradigm provides liquidity for investors and employees without the high costs and regulatory burdens of going public. This shift fundamentally alters the venture capital lifecycle, enabling longer private holding periods.

The recent rally in some biotech stocks is likely just the beginning. Key indicators of a full-blown bull market, such as a resurgence in biotech IPOs and a rally in large tool companies (e.g., Thermo Fisher), have not yet occurred, suggesting the cycle is still in its early innings.

In the current market, companies prioritize liquidity and public market access over protecting previous private valuations. A lower IPO price is no longer seen as a failure but as a necessary market correction to move forward and ensure survival.

Despite initial excitement, the market's enthusiasm for IPOs has cooled significantly. Many newly public tech companies, including high-quality ones like Figma, are trading well below their peaks or even their IPO price, indicating the floodgates for public exits have not truly reopened.

The current IPO market is bifurcated. Investors are unenthusiastic about solid, VC-backed companies in the $5-$15B valuation range, leading to poor post-IPO performance. However, there is immense pent-up demand for a handful of mega-private companies like SpaceX and OpenAI.

A massive $4.5 billion week for follow-on financings, triple the next largest week of the year, indicates a significant and abrupt positive shift in market sentiment. This end-of-year rush, which followed a dismal first half, suggests investors are regaining confidence and deploying capital into biotech, potentially setting a strong tone for the upcoming year and JPM conference.

The profile of a company prepared to go public has matured significantly. Unlike the 2020 boom where IND acceptance was a key milestone, today's IPO candidates typically need Phase 2 or even Phase 3 data, raising the quality bar but shrinking the potential pool of companies.