With information now ubiquitous, the primary source of market inefficiency is no longer informational but behavioral. The most durable edge is "time arbitrage"—exploiting the market's obsession with short-term results by focusing on a business's normalized potential over a two-to-four-year horizon.

Focusing only on trendy sectors leads to intense competition where the vast majority of startups fail. True opportunity lies in contrarian ideas that others overlook or dismiss, as these markets have fewer competitors.

While adjacent, incremental innovation feels safer and is easier to get approved, Nubar Afeyan warns that everyone else is doing the same thing. This approach inevitably leads to commoditization and erodes sustainable advantage. Leaping to new possibilities is the only way to truly own a new space.

The biggest growth driver is mastering platforms where attention is currently underpriced. Businesses often fail by romanticizing past tactics or obsessing over future trends like the metaverse, completely missing the massive, free opportunity available in the present.

The value of a large, pre-existing audience is decreasing. Powerful platform algorithms are becoming so effective at identifying and distributing high-quality content that a new creator with great material can get significant reach without an established following. This levels the playing field and reduces the incumbent advantage.

In a crowded market, the most critical question for a founder is not "what's the idea?" but "why am I so lucky to have this insight?" You must identify your unique advantage—your "alpha"—that allows you to see something others don't. Without this, you're just another smart person trying things.

To identify non-consensus ideas, analyze the founder's motivation. A founder with a deep, personal reason for starting their company is more likely on a unique path. Conversely, founders who "whiteboarded" their way to an idea are often chasing mimetic, competitive trends.

Analysis shows that the themes venture capitalists and media hype in any given year are significantly delayed. Breakout companies like OpenAI were founded years before their sector became a dominant trend, suggesting that investing in the current "hot" theme is a strategy for being late.

The modern internet economy runs on an "attention market" where viral narratives attract talent and capital, often independent of underlying business fundamentals. This accelerates innovation but risks misallocating resources toward fleeting trends, replacing traditional price signals with attention metrics as the driver for investment.