This "counterfactual" test helps assess your true impact. If someone equally qualified would immediately replace you, your unique contribution is low, even in a seemingly high-impact job. The goal is to find roles where your absence would create a genuine void, as that represents your true marginal impact.
Related Insights
To differentiate talent, serial founder Brad Jacobs imagines a key employee resigning. If his reaction is relief, they're a C-player. If it's manageable inconvenience, a B-player. But if the thought induces "pure terror and absolute panic," they are an irreplaceable A-player you must retain.
Many skilled professionals are overlooked for promotions or new roles not because their work is subpar, but because they fail to articulate a compelling narrative around their accomplishments. How you frame your impact in interviews and promotion documents is as crucial as the impact itself.
Instead of striving to be the best in a single domain, find a unique intersection of skills you're good at. Being able to negotiate across both design and engineering, for example, creates a niche where you are the "only" person with that combination, making you more valuable than being just another "good" specialist.
Apply the marketing concept of a unique product with no competition to your career. Your distinct combination of experiences, skills, and background makes you incomparable. This mindset frees you from the stress of professional jealousy, comparison, and FOMO.
Borrowing a concept from real estate, constantly ask yourself: 'What is the highest and best use of me today?' This framework encourages you to leverage your cumulative experience to make significant, non-linear career leaps, rather than just taking the next logical, incremental step.
To clarify difficult talent decisions, ask yourself: "Would I enthusiastically rehire this person for this same role today?" This binary question, used at Stripe, bypasses emotional ambiguity and provides a clear signal. A "no" doesn't mean immediate termination, but it mandates that some corrective action must be taken.
A linear career path is not required for success. Businesses ultimately value high performers who demonstrate an ownership mentality and consistently drive impact. Focusing on helping the business win creates opportunities to move across roles and industries, making your journey more valuable.
Over-engagement in work, even passionate work, can lead to a gradual "amputation" of personal identity. A powerful self-diagnostic is to ask: "Who am I without my job?" If the answer is unclear, it signals that your work identity has dangerously overshadowed other parts of yourself.
A superior prioritization framework calculates your marginal contribution: (Importance * [Success Probability with you - Success Probability without you]) / Time. This means working on a lower-priority project where you can be a hero is often more valuable than being a cog in a well-staffed, top-priority machine.
Instead of seeking job security, aim to become replaceable by systematizing your role and upskilling your team. Once your unique counterfactual impact wanes, find a new challenge where your skills are essential again. This cycle ensures you are always creating value that wouldn't exist otherwise, maximizing your career-long impact.