The most immediate AI milestone is not singularity, but "Economic AGI," where AI can perform most virtual knowledge work better than humans. This threshold, predicted to arrive within 12-18 months, will trigger massive societal and economic shifts long before a "Terminator"-style superintelligence becomes a reality.

Block's CTO quantifies the impact of their internal AI agent, Goose. AI-forward engineering teams save 8-10 hours weekly, a figure he considers the absolute baseline. He notes, "this is the worst it will ever be," suggesting exponential gains are coming.

METR's research reveals a consistent, exponential trend in AI capabilities over the last five years. When measured by the length of tasks an AI can complete (based on human completion time), this 'time horizon' has been doubling approximately every seven months, providing a single, robust metric for tracking progress.

As AI agents become reliable for complex, multi-step tasks, the critical human role will shift from execution to verification. New jobs will emerge focused on overseeing agent processes, analyzing their chain-of-thought, and validating their outputs for accuracy and quality.

A key metric for AI progress is the size of a task (measured in human-hours) it can complete. This metric is currently doubling every four to seven months. At this exponential rate, an AI that handles a two-hour task today will be able to manage a two-week project autonomously within two years.

Leading LLMs can now replicate a two-hour human software engineering task with 50% accuracy. This capability is doubling every seven months, signaling an urgent need for organizations to adapt their data infrastructure, security, and governance to leverage this exponential growth.

Julian Schrittwieser, a key researcher from Anthropic and formerly Google DeepMind, forecasts that extrapolating current AI progress suggests models will achieve full-day autonomy and match human experts across many industries by mid-2026. This timeline is much shorter than many anticipate.

The future of software isn't just AI-powered features. It's a fundamental shift from tools that assist humans to autonomous agents that perform tasks. Human roles will evolve from *doing* the work to *orchestrating* thousands of these agents.

While the long-term trend for AI capability shows a seven-month doubling time, data since 2024 suggests an acceleration to a four-month doubling time. This faster pace has been a much better predictor of recent model performance, indicating a potential shift to a super-exponential trajectory.