Despite a 52-year explosion in technology and worker productivity, the average American worker's real weekly wages, adjusted for inflation, are lower today than in 1973. This highlights a fundamental failure of the economic system to distribute gains from innovation to labor.
The wealth divide is exacerbated by two different types of inflation. While wages are benchmarked against CPI (consumer goods), wealth for asset-holders grows with "asset price inflation" (stocks, real estate), which compounds much faster. Young people paid in cash cannot keep up.
Technological innovation should naturally cause deflation (falling prices). The Fed's 2% inflation target requires printing enough money to first counteract all technological deflation and then add 2% on top, making the true inflationary effect much larger than officially stated.
Wage stagnation is not accidental but a result of two concurrent policies. By sending manufacturing jobs overseas and simultaneously bringing in low-wage labor, corporations create a market where domestic workers lose nearly all leverage to demand higher pay for remaining jobs.
The combination of solid GDP growth and weaker job creation is not necessarily a warning sign, but a structural shift. With productivity growth rebounding to its 2% historical average and labor supply constrained by lower immigration, the economy can grow robustly without adding as many jobs as in the past.
Despite headline economic growth, the bottom 80% of U.S. households have seen their spending power stagnate since before the pandemic. Their spending has grown at exactly the rate of inflation, meaning their real consumption hasn't increased. This data explains the widespread public dissatisfaction with the economy.
While fears of job loss from automation dominate headlines, Vanguard's Joe Davis argues the real drag on economic growth is a *lack* of automation. The service sector, representing 80% of jobs, has seen little productivity improvement since the internet boom, leading to overall economic stagnation.
U.S. economic policy is no longer aimed at broad prosperity but at ensuring the S&P 500 index continues to rise. This singular focus creates negative side effects, like suffering for the majority of the population who rely on wage growth rather than asset appreciation.
Even if AI drives productivity, it may not fuel broad economic growth. The benefits are expected to be narrowly distributed, boosting stock values for the wealthy rather than wages for the average worker. This wealth effect has diminishing returns and won't offset weaker spending from the middle class.
Despite strong GDP and corporate profits, productivity gains are eliminating lower-skilled jobs. BlackRock's Rick Reeder warns this is creating a social problem where aggregate consumption looks healthy, but a segment of the population is being left behind, a dynamic he calls a "travesty."
The widespread feeling that the system is "rigged" stems from specific government policies. Deficit spending and inflation systematically devalue labor and make key assets like homes unaffordable, robbing non-asset holders of their ability to build wealth and achieve upward mobility.