Positive feedback and expressions of interest are misleading. The ultimate validation for a product idea is a customer's willingness to commit real currency, whether through direct payment or a signed letter of intent. Without this commitment, you have a charity, not a business.

To determine if a startup will succeed, analyze the sequence of events. Did organic customer demand and behavior exist before the startup created its supply (product, messaging)? If the startup is trying to force motion with its supply, it's a sign of conjuring demand and a higher risk of failure.

Successful startups tap into organic customer needs that already exist—a 'pull' from the market. In contrast, 'conjuring demand' involves a founder trying to convince a market of a new worldview without prior evidence. This is a much harder and less reliable path to building a business.

The ultimate test of PMF isn't surveys or usage metrics, but how indispensable your product is. If customers don't immediately notice and complain when it's gone, you haven't achieved true dependency. It's a visceral, high-signal test for any founder.

While his vision for serving the SMB market via MSPs was consistently rejected, Kyle Hanslovan eventually won over investors by focusing on hard data. By proving the model with strong KPIs like top-of-funnel conversion, net dollar retention, and cash flow, he made the opportunity undeniable, even to skeptics.

During validation calls for Merge, prospective customers expressed extreme annoyance with the status quo but were skeptical the founders could technically solve it. This combination was the ultimate signal: the pain was immense, and a successful solution would be highly defensible and valuable.

Founders often quit for the wrong reason: struggling to schedule meetings, which is merely a lack of data. The true signal to pivot or quit is when you've successfully engaged potential customers who have clear demand (pull) and they still explicitly reject your solution after multiple iterations.

After experiencing numerous lukewarm responses to failed ideas, the intense, urgent demand from a customer for a successful product becomes an undeniable signal. The contrast between a polite 'maybe later' and a frantic 'how do I get this now?' makes true product-market fit impossible to miss.

Founders often over-index on early user complaints. However, if a product addresses a powerful, unmet demand, users will endure significant flaws. The existence of strong market "pull" is a more important signal than initial product imperfections. The market will effectively fund the product's improvement.