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Since most biotech programs fail (as few as 1 in 10 succeed), a company's survival depends on running a portfolio of multiple programs simultaneously. This requires the discipline to quickly terminate unsuccessful projects and the foresight to have subsequent programs already underway.
Unlike tech investing, where a single power-law outlier can return the entire fund, biotech wins are smaller in magnitude. This dynamic forces biotech VCs to prioritize a higher success rate across their portfolio rather than solely hunting for one massive unicorn.
Small biotechs must avoid becoming too attached to their initial lead compounds. They should adopt a 'first pancake' mindset, recognizing the first attempt may need to be discarded. This requires a professional, decision-driving approach over an emotional, project-tracking one.
Voyager Therapeutics can't afford massive, long-term clinical trials. Instead, it selects programs where it can use tools like imaging and fluid biomarkers to quickly and efficiently confirm a drug is working as intended. This strategy allows for early de-risking before committing massive capital.
In biotech, early data is often ambiguous. Instead of judging programs on potential, leaders must prioritize based on the time and capital required to reach a clear 'yes' or 'no' outcome. Indefinite 'gray zone' projects drain resources that could fund a winner.
While biotech cannot easily replicate tech's rapid iteration cycles due to high costs and long feedback loops, it can adopt the capital efficiency model of tech seed investing. The strategy is to kill flawed projects quickly and cheaply, ensuring that when you lose, you lose small.
The fastest way to de-risk a biotech concept is to actively try to 'kill' it. By pitching to experts and seeking critical feedback in competitions, founders can expose fatal flaws early. If the idea is invalidated, it saves years of wasted effort; if it survives, it's significantly stronger.
The fundamental purpose of any biotech company is to leverage a novel technology or insight that increases the probability of clinical trial success. This reframes the mission away from just "cool science" to having a core thesis for beating the industry's dismal odds of getting a drug to market.
Small biotechs face a paradox: they must pursue highly innovative, risky science to differentiate themselves, as "me-too" drugs won't attract investment. The key to survival is managing this high scientific risk with strategies that provide fast, capital-efficient data for go/no-go decisions.
Founders must balance scientific conviction with market feedback. Kulkarni shares that his team abandoned pursuing certain indications that, while scientifically sound, failed to gain investor traction. This shows the critical need to pivot based on market signals, not just internal belief, to ensure continued funding and support.
A critical mindset shift from academia to startups is embracing the "killer experiment." Academics may fear an experiment that disproves a long-held hypothesis. In contrast, biotech startups, with finite capital, must run these experiments early to either validate or kill a program, efficiently allocating resources to viable projects.