Catastrophic outcomes often result from incentive structures that force people to optimize for the wrong metric. Boeing's singular focus on beating Airbus to market created a cascade of shortcuts and secrecy that made failure almost inevitable, regardless of individual intentions.
AI labs may initially conceal a model's "chain of thought" for safety. However, when competitors reveal this internal reasoning and users prefer it, market dynamics force others to follow suit, demonstrating how competition can compel companies to abandon safety measures for a competitive edge.
Exceptional people in flawed systems will produce subpar results. Before focusing on individual performance, leaders must ensure the underlying systems are reliable and resilient. As shown by the Southwest Airlines software meltdown, blaming employees for systemic failures masks the root cause and prevents meaningful improvement.
Unlike shares purchased with personal capital, stock options are often treated like "house money." This incentivizes CEOs to make excessively risky bets with shareholder capital because they capture all the upside but are not punished for failure, leading to poor capital allocation.
Charlie Munger, who considered himself in the top 5% at understanding incentives, admitted he underestimated their power his entire life. This highlights the pervasive and often hidden influence of reward systems on human behavior, which can override all other considerations.
Many top AI CEOs openly admit the extinction-level risks of their work, with some estimating a 25% chance. However, they feel powerless to stop the race. If a CEO paused for safety, investors would simply replace them with someone willing to push forward, creating a systemic trap where everyone sees the danger but no one can afford to hit the brakes.
AI leaders aren't ignoring risks because they're malicious, but because they are trapped in a high-stakes competitive race. This "code red" environment incentivizes patching safety issues case-by-case rather than fundamentally re-architecting AI systems to be safe by construction.
Setting rigid targets incentivizes employees to present favorable numbers, even subconsciously. This "performance theater" discourages them from investigating negative results, which are often the source of valuable learning. The muscle for detective work atrophies, and real problems remain hidden beneath good-looking metrics.
Spinoza's concept of "canatus" (striving) highlights how misalignment between individual goals (e.g., a CEO's reputation) and the organization's goals (shareholder returns) creates agency problems that damage the entire enterprise, underscoring the critical need for incentive alignment.
The defense procurement system was built when technology platforms lasted for decades, prioritizing getting it perfect over getting it fast. This risk-averse model is now a liability in an era of rapid innovation, as it stifles the experimentation and failure necessary for speed.
When complex situations are reduced to a single metric, strategy shifts from achieving the original goal to maximizing the metric itself. During the Vietnam War, using "body counts" as a proxy for success led to military decisions designed to increase casualties, not to win the war.