Technologists often have a narrow vision for their creations. Thomas Edison believed the phonograph's primary use would be for listening to religious sermons, not jazz music. This history demonstrates that inventors' predictions about their technology's impact should be met with deep skepticism.

Sebastian Thrun, a top expert, initially dismissed city-based self-driving cars as impossible. This taught him that experts are often blind to disruptive change, as their knowledge is rooted in past paradigms, making them ill-equipped to envision a radically different future.

Palmer Luckey argues the global push for electric vehicles is a massive, potentially misguided bet. He points to the viability of creating cheap, synthetic hydrocarbon fuels which, if successful, would render current EV infrastructure investments a waste of time and money, especially for aviation.

Instead of focusing only on new technology, it's crucial to see how old technologies disrupt industries in new ways. Mala Gaonkar cites lithium-ion batteries, invented in 1976, revolutionizing the modern auto industry, and gaming GPUs from the past now powering the AI boom.

Despite predictions that new technologies like drones and EVs would make them obsolete, the F-35 fighter jet and the oil industry are thriving. This proves that established, 'old' industries have immense staying power, and that technological disruption often takes a lifetime, not a few years.

Rivian's CEO argues that the EV adoption rate in the US is not a reflection of consumer disinterest, but a direct result of a lack of product variety. With most non-Tesla EVs mimicking the Model Y's form factor, consumers who self-identify with their vehicles have few compelling alternatives, stalling mass-market conversion from internal combustion engines.

While rivals invested in dedicated EV-only platforms, BMW pursued a flexible architecture for gas, hybrid, and electric drivetrains. This heavily criticized strategy now seems like a masterstroke, allowing BMW to adapt to varying adoption rates while competitors pull back from their all-in EV bets.

Zipline's CEO argues from first principles that current delivery logistics are absurdly inefficient. Replacing a human-driven, gas-powered car with a small, autonomous electric drone is not just an incremental improvement but a fundamental paradigm shift dictated by physics.

Don't evaluate a new technology by comparing its current state to the incumbent. Its real value lies in the "Cambrian explosion" of future innovation and optionality it enables. This is the case for electric vehicles, which unlock new transport models and energy possibilities that combustion engines cannot.