Once Chinese intervention in the Korean War created a stalemate, Stalin saw the conflict as a perfect opportunity. He believed it would drain American resources and delay China's rise, all while keeping Russia out of direct conflict—a low-risk, high-reward strategy of "fighting to the last Chinese."

The dynamic between a rising power (China) and a ruling one (the U.S.) fits the historical pattern of the "Thucydides' trap." In 12 of the last 16 instances of this scenario, the confrontation has ended in open war, suggesting that a peaceful resolution is the exception, not the rule.

Historically, Russia and China's strategy as continental empires involves avoiding two-front wars and actively destabilizing neighboring states. This creates buffer zones and prevents any single power from becoming a threat on their borders, ensuring their own security through regional instability.

According to the Bank of Finland's governor, China's backing of Russia's aggression has fundamentally altered European perceptions. Europeans now view China as an ally of a nation actively trying to undermine their freedoms, creating a significant obstacle to deeper economic and political ties.

In the final weeks of WWII, the Soviet Union invaded Manchuria and dismantled its industrial infrastructure, shipping home the vast majority of its power, mining, and metalworking equipment. This industrial base should have gone to China, which had fought Japan for 15 years, not Russia.

The popular image of a strong, friendly Sino-Soviet bond originated with the 1919 Karahan Manifesto, where Bolsheviks promised to return lands seized by the Tsars. They later reneged on this promise, but the propaganda successfully masked Russia's own continued imperial ambitions in China.

The core national anxieties of Russia and China are opposites, shaping their strategic cultures. Russia's history of devastating invasions fuels its fear of external threats (the "Mongol yoke"). China, haunted by centuries of civil war, fears internal chaos and the collapse of the state above all else.

Soviet leaders who lived through WWII understood the unpredictability of direct conflict and preferred proxy wars. Vladimir Putin, in contrast, has consistently used direct "hot wars"—from Chechnya to Georgia to Ukraine—as a primary tool to consolidate power and boost his domestic popularity.

Fearing a joint German-Japanese attack in the 1930s, Stalin used his influence to force Chinese Nationalists and Communists into a united front. This provoked Japan into a massive, costly invasion of China in 1937, tying down Japanese forces so they could not threaten the Soviet Union.