Jordan Bardella’s European policy is not just critical of the EU; it’s a direct and deliberate confrontation with Germany. He explicitly described the EU as 'an association to defend the interests of Germany,' positioning his 'France First' agenda as a necessary fight against German dominance within the bloc.
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Jordan Bardella's platform is an unusual mix for the populist right. It combines traditional anti-immigration and nationalist policies with a surprisingly modern, pro-business, and tech-focused discourse, including an emphasis on AI. This 'Trumpian' blend aims to broaden his appeal beyond the party's traditional base.
The global rise of right-wing populism cannot be solely attributed to economic factors like inequality or job loss. Its prevalence in wealthy, low-inequality nations like Sweden and strong manufacturing countries like Germany proves the root cause is a deeper, more widespread cultural anxiety.
The appeal of a populist leader lies in their rejection of traditional political norms. When the electorate feels betrayed by the established "political class," they gravitate toward figures whose rhetoric is a deliberate and stark contrast, signaling they are an outsider.
A new US national security document signals a radical foreign policy shift. It explicitly states the US will support "right wing, far right and populist right parties" in Europe that align with its anti-immigration stance, effectively interfering in the domestic politics of allied nations to promote a "MAGA like" Europe.
A deep distrust of the bipartisan "neoliberal consensus" has made many young people receptive to any counter-narrative, whether from the left or right. This creates a powerful anti-establishment bloc that finds common ground in opposing the status quo, explaining the crossover appeal of populist figures.
While Italy has historically been a focus for political risk, the current stable government has reduced near-term concerns. The primary political risk now centers on France, where noise around the early 2027 presidential election is expected to pressure French government bond spreads in late 2026.
Leaders like France's Jordan Bardella are strategically cautious about publicly embracing Donald Trump. Despite ideological similarities and support from Trump's camp, Trump's deep unpopularity in Europe makes any open association a political liability for populists seeking mainstream appeal.
In France, centrist parties are trapped. Treating the populist National Rally as a pariah has failed to stop its growth. Conversely, treating it as a respectable political opponent has also boosted its popularity, creating a strategic dead-end for the mainstream.
A key paradox of modern populism is that staunch nationalists like Nigel Farage, the "godfather of Brexit," honed their political skills and built crucial alliances within the very transnational institutions, like the European Parliament, that they aimed to dismantle.
The psychological engine of populism is the zero-sum fallacy. It frames every issue—trade deficits, immigration, university admissions—as a win-lose scenario. This narrative, where one group's success must come at another's expense, fosters the protectionist and resentful attitudes that populist leaders exploit.
