Firms like OpenAI and Meta claim a compute shortage while also exploring selling compute capacity. This isn't a contradiction but a strategic evolution. They are buying all available supply to secure their own needs and then arbitraging the excess, effectively becoming smaller-scale cloud providers for AI.

Established SaaS firms avoid AI-native products because they operate at lower gross margins (e.g., 40%) compared to traditional software (80%+). This parallels brick-and-mortar retail's fatal hesitation with e-commerce, creating an opportunity for AI-native startups to capture the market by embracing different unit economics.

A fundamental shift is occurring where startups allocate limited budgets toward specialized AI models and developer tools, rather than defaulting to AWS for all infrastructure. This signals a de-bundling of the traditional cloud stack and a change in platform priorities.

Incumbents are disincentivized from creating cheaper, superior products that would cannibalize existing high-margin revenue streams. Organizational silos also hinder the creation of blended solutions that cross traditional product lines, creating opportunities for startups to innovate in the gaps.

Building software traditionally required minimal capital. However, advanced AI development introduces high compute costs, with users reporting spending hundreds on a single project. This trend could re-erect financial barriers to entry in software, making it a capital-intensive endeavor similar to hardware.

Unlike traditional SaaS, achieving product-market fit in AI is not enough for survival. The high and variable costs of model inference mean that as usage grows, companies can scale directly into unprofitability. This makes developing cost-efficient infrastructure a critical moat and survival strategy, not just an optimization.

In the current market, AI companies see explosive growth through two primary vectors: attaching to the massive AI compute spend or directly replacing human labor. Companies merely using AI to improve an existing product without hitting one of these drivers risk being discounted as they lack a clear, exponential growth narrative.

Enterprise software budgets are growing, but the money is being reallocated. CIOs are forced to cut functional, "good-to-have" apps to pay for price increases from core vendors and to fund new AI tools. This means even happy customers of non-mission-critical software may churn as budgets are redirected to top priorities.

AI company Anthropic's potential multi-billion dollar compute deal with Google over AWS is a major strategic indicator. It suggests AWS's AI infrastructure is falling behind, and losing a cornerstone AI customer like Anthropic could mean its entire AI strategy is 'cooked,' signaling a shift in the cloud platform wars.