The US Treasury's intervention to stabilize the Argentine peso was likely motivated by President Trump's desire to support a key political ally, Javier Milei, rather than specific US economic interests like shale gas or IMF stability.

The U.S. Treasury's purchase of $2 billion in Argentine pesos before the election was more than a currency stabilization effort; it was a strategic political endorsement of President Malé that paid off. The move provided crucial support and, with the peso strengthening post-election, could even turn a profit for the U.S.

Unprecedented US financial support, likened to Draghi's "whatever it takes," has successfully created a circuit breaker for Argentina's negative market feedback loop. However, this support only addresses financial symptoms (FX and credit risk) and cannot solve the underlying political uncertainty about the government's ability to implement reforms.

Given the unreliability of polling, markets will wait for tangible results before reacting. The composition of congress will be the first concrete signal, with a divided or right-leaning legislature seen as a positive check on executive power. This could trigger currency rallies well before the final presidential outcome is known.

The appeal of a populist leader lies in their rejection of traditional political norms. When the electorate feels betrayed by the established "political class," they gravitate toward figures whose rhetoric is a deliberate and stark contrast, signaling they are an outsider.

Argentina's President Javier Milei uses a chainsaw at rallies not just for shock value, but as a potent symbol. It simultaneously represents the problem (excessive government spending) and his proposed solution (slashing the budget), creating a simple and resonant message for voters weary of economic jargon.

Despite Javier Milei's iconoclastic image, his economic program is run by a highly respected, conventional team of technocrats, many from the previous reformist administration. This creates a separation between his "Trumpy" political style and the orthodox, IMF-style stabilization policies being implemented.

Knowing they would perform well in Buenos Aires, the Peronist party strategically held an early local election. They correctly anticipated President Milei would over-promise on his party's performance, creating a negative market reaction when he under-delivered, thereby executing a "perfectly executed attack" on his program's stability.

Unlike typical government welfare, aid money in Argentina, even from international sources, is channeled through Peronist party operatives who hand it out physically. This frames the aid as a personal gift from the party, creating a powerful system of dependency and political obligation.