After profiting from its GFC hedges, Fairfax over-learned the lesson and continued hedging equities from 2010 to 2016. This protective stance became so costly in a bull market that it completely wiped out all operating income for that period, causing massive underperformance against the S&P 500.
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In a rising market, the investors taking the most risk generate the highest returns, making them appear brilliant. However, this same aggression ensures they will be hurt the most when the market turns. This dynamic creates a powerful incentive to increase risk-taking, often just before a downturn.
Fairfax employs a clever M&A strategy called the "cannibal buy-up." When an asset is too large to acquire outright, they partner with another firm. Later, when financially stronger, they use their capital to buy out the partner's stake, allowing them to gain 100% control of a valuable asset over time.
To maintain pricing discipline, Fairfax has a strict M&A rule: it never participates in auctions or bidding wars. Once an offer is made, it's final. This strategy prevents them from overpaying and ensures they only acquire companies at prices that offer attractive future returns.
Contrary to the 'hold forever' value investing trope, a three-year period of underperformance is a strong signal that your initial thesis was flawed. It's better to admit the mistake and reallocate capital than to stubbornly wait for the market to agree with you.
After enduring a brutal multi-year short-seller campaign, Fairfax concluded that a fortress balance sheet is the ultimate defense. They now hold billions in cash and untapped credit lines, not just for operational safety, but specifically to make the company an unattractive target for future hedge fund attacks.
The book "The Fairfax Way" reveals the company's early success wasn't merely from acquiring insurers at low valuations. The critical, often overlooked element was the immense time, money, and work required to revamp and stabilize these acquired operations to an acceptable level, a key lesson for value investors.
Fairfax executed a brilliant capital allocation move by selling a 10% stake in its subsidiary, Odyssey, to pension funds for 1.7 times its book value. They then used the billion-dollar proceeds to buy back their own undervalued parent company stock, which was trading at a discount of 0.9x book value.
Reframe hedging not as pure defense, but as an offensive tool. A proper hedge produces a cash windfall during a downturn, providing the capital and psychological confidence to buy assets at a discount when others are panic-selling.
Fairfax's multi-billion dollar gain during the 2008 crisis was not a speculative macro bet but a defensive one. They bought credit default swaps (CDS) as insurance against their own reinsurers, whom they identified as being dangerously exposed to mortgage-backed securities, protecting themselves from counterparty failure.
Contrary to expectations, drawdowns in managed futures frequently occur when equity markets are performing well. The strategy's recovery periods, however, often coincide with equity market turbulence, highlighting its counter-cyclical nature and making it behaviorally difficult to hold.
