From the outside, a startup finding organic demand and one conjuring it can use identical tactics, like creating a new category or aggressive marketing. The key difference, invisible to observers, is whether these tactics respond to an existing customer pull or attempt to create one from nothing.
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Founders who have truly 'found' demand can break free from copying other startups' playbooks. They can confidently deploy unique tactics in product or marketing that seem strange to outsiders but perfectly fit their specific, proprietary understanding of customer needs, leading to outsized success.
Marketers often mistake strategic positioning (finding a niche) for true category creation. A new category introduces a solution to a problem customers haven't yet articulated, requiring education on why they need a thing they've never bought before.
The rapid growth of AI products isn't due to a sudden market desire for AI technology itself. Rather, AI enables superior solutions for long-standing customer problems that were previously addressed with inadequate options. The demand existed long before the AI-powered supply arrived to meet it.
To determine if a startup will succeed, analyze the sequence of events. Did organic customer demand and behavior exist before the startup created its supply (product, messaging)? If the startup is trying to force motion with its supply, it's a sign of conjuring demand and a higher risk of failure.
Successful startups tap into organic customer needs that already exist—a 'pull' from the market. In contrast, 'conjuring demand' involves a founder trying to convince a market of a new worldview without prior evidence. This is a much harder and less reliable path to building a business.
The backlash against 'category creation' isn't about the concept itself, but its poor execution. Critics react negatively when marketers simply apply a new name to a product in an existing category without any fundamental product differentiation. This is seen as disingenuous marketing spin rather than true innovation.
This reframes the fundamental goal of a startup away from a supply-side focus (building) to a demand-side focus (discovery). The market's unmet need is the force that pulls a company and its product into existence, not the other way around.
Many marketers mistakenly start with the goal of creating a new category. However, a new category only emerges as a downstream consequence of a strong, existing demand that is poorly served by all current products. The demand must exist before a new category can be successfully established.
A core investment framework is to distinguish between 'pull' companies, where the market organically and virally demands the product, and 'push' companies that have to force their solution onto the market. The former indicates stronger product-market fit and a higher potential for efficient, scalable growth.
