Despite the vitriol on social media and in political discourse, the actual social reality is not nearly as polarized. On fundamental issues like the fairness of gerrymandering or the need for a welfare system, there is massive agreement between Democrats and Republicans. Political actors and media amplify conflict, creating a participatory 'cosplay' of division that obscures vast common ground.
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Cable news and social media don't show the average person who votes differently. They blast the loudest, most cartoonish "professional lunatics" from the opposing side. This creates a false impression that the entire opposition is extreme, making tribalism seem rational.
Outrage-driven news follows a predictable six-step cycle: a fringe story appears, one side reacts, the story gets amplified, the other side counter-reacts, and so on. This banal loop captures attention but distracts from more significant societal problems.
Societal hatred and tribalism are lagging indicators of economic distress. By the time political polarization becomes extreme, the underlying system is already in crisis due to factors like excessive debt and money printing. The economy is the root cause to watch.
The perception of a deeply divided society is largely an artifact of a political system built on competition and elections, which forces people into two opposing camps. A system based on deliberation would reveal that most people's views are not so rigidly coherent, and it would encourage finding common ground rather than winning at all costs.
Political parties now adopt positions primarily to oppose their rivals, rather than from consistent principles. This is seen in the multiple reversals on COVID-19 policies and vaccines. When beliefs flip-flop based on the opponent's stance, the driving force is tribalism, not ideology.
The online world, particularly platforms like the former Twitter, is not a true reflection of the real world. A small percentage of users, many of whom are bots, generate the vast majority of content. This creates a distorted and often overly negative perception of public sentiment that does not represent the majority view.
As the general public tunes out of daily politics, the remaining participants are the most extreme, creating an "evaporative cooling" effect. This leaves a small, hyper-engaged, and radicalized group to dominate political platforms, distorting the perception of public sentiment.
Most people (88%) agree on fundamental values but remain silent, fearing ostracization. This allows the most extreme 5% of voices to dominate 90% of public discourse, creating a false impression of widespread disagreement and polarization where one doesn't exist.
People look at the same set of facts (stars) but interpret them through different frameworks, creating entirely different narratives (constellations). These narratives, though artificial, have real-world utility for navigation and decision-making, explaining why people reach opposing conclusions from the same data.
People incorrectly attribute societal friction to race when the root cause is a lack of shared beliefs and values. The intense division between the American left and right—often within the same race—proves that assimilation into a common value system is the key to social cohesion, not ethnic homogeneity.
