The U.S. prevalence for wood-framed housing is a matter of historical path dependency. Unlike Europe, which had largely deforested centuries ago, North America’s immense and cheap timber supply established wood as the default building material, shaping the industry's technology and labor skills.
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A primary driver of the near-extinction of the American buffalo was the insatiable demand for industrial leather belting to power machinery in factories. This often-overlooked connection shows how industrialization directly fueled one of the largest ecological disasters in American history.
The promise of factory efficiency in prefab housing is often erased by new costs. Modules must be over-engineered to survive road transport—a primary design constraint—and then require complex, costly on-site work to connect, negating initial savings.
The difference in home price trends between US regions is not about weather or jobs, but housing supply. States in the South and West that permit widespread new construction are seeing prices fall, while "Not In My Backyard" (NIMBY) states in the Northeast and Midwest face shortages and rising prices.
Homeownership is the primary vehicle for intergenerational wealth creation in the United States. The average household has four times more wealth tied up in their home than in stock market investments, highlighting the severe economic impact of declining ownership rates.
Unlike lightweight goods, heavy housing modules are uneconomical to ship more than a day's drive. This physical constraint prevents the creation of massive, centralized factories, forcing a model of smaller, distributed plants that cannot achieve the same economies of scale.
Construction projects have limited upside (e.g., 10-15% under budget) but massive downside (100-300%+ over budget). This skewed risk profile rationally incentivizes builders to stick with predictable, traditional methods rather than adopt new technologies that could lead to catastrophic overruns.
The affordability crisis isn't solely about price inflation; it's also driven by "cultural inflation." The expected size of a starter home has ballooned from under 1,000 sq ft in the 1950s to nearly 2,500 sq ft today. This dramatic shift in consumer expectations fundamentally alters the affordability calculation.
Contrary to most industries that see technological gains, housing construction has become less efficient. This stagnation is a key, often overlooked driver of housing affordability issues, as the fundamental cost to build has not decreased with technology.
The Netherlands was an ideal starting market due to high construction density (short travel to pilot sites) and a single, nationwide building code. This homogeneity simplified product development and testing, unlike fragmented markets like the US or Germany, accelerating learning loops.
The current housing market is not a cyclical bubble that will pop, but a structural crisis. It's a permanent collapse of opportunity driven by policy failures, corporate consolidation, and demographic incentives that have created deep, lasting scarcity, fundamentally changing the nature of homeownership in America.
