For the first time in nearly a decade, Hong Kong's residential, office, and retail property segments are all set to grow simultaneously. This rare, synchronized upturn indicates a broad-based and resilient market recovery, rather than a fragile, sector-specific rebound.

Contrary to consensus, Hong Kong's property market recovery is not tied to China's struggling real estate sector. The key driver is a local policy change: scrapping stamp duties, which unleashed pent-up demand, particularly from mainland buyers whose market share jumped from 20% to 50%.

The buy vs. rent calculation varies globally due to different mortgage market structures. The US preference for 30-year fixed rates keeps borrowing costs high, while Hong Kong's floating short-term rates can make buying cheaper. The decision depends as much on financial product structure as on rates.

The widely reported collapse of China's housing market is not an organic crisis but a state-directed reallocation of capital. By instructing banks to prioritize industrial capacity over mortgages, the government is deliberately shifting funds away from a speculative real estate bubble and into strategic sectors like microchips to counter US sanctions and build self-sufficiency.

Increasing political instability, crime, and social decay in major Western cities are causing a 'flight capital' phenomenon among the wealthy. They are relocating to places perceived as safer and better managed, such as Dubai and Hong Kong, driving up asset prices in those locations.

A wide range of historically reliable leading indicators—including copper prices, non-traded commodities, Korean equities, and small-cap stocks—are all simultaneously pointing towards a strengthening global cyclical outlook. This alignment across different assets and regions provides a more substantive and reliable signal than any single indicator could.

Asset allocation should be based on liquidity cycles, not economic cycles like GDP growth, as they are out of sync. An increase in liquidity precedes economic acceleration by 12-15 months. Strong economic data can even be a negative signal for asset markets as it means money is leaving financials for the real economy.

While local policies like zoning are often blamed for housing crises, the problem's prevalence across vastly different economies and regulatory environments suggests it's a global phenomenon. This points to systemic drivers beyond local supply constraints, such as global capital flows into real estate.

The immense profitability of real estate in China created a gravitational pull for capital and talent. Productive companies diverted resources to start real estate side-businesses, and entrepreneurs abandoned other sectors, resulting in a net drag on national productivity and innovation.