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During the 1870s and 1880s, the scarcity of gold created an intensifying squeeze on the global money supply. Ahamed suggests that without South Africa's major gold discoveries, prolonged deflation likely would have forced the United States to abandon gold for silver.
The recent surge in gold and silver prices is paradoxical proof of the US dollar's strength. According to economist Tyler Cowen, it demonstrates that investors seeking a non-correlated, safe-haven asset have nowhere else to go. The lack of a viable alternative forces capital into precious metals, reinforcing the dollar's central role.
Beyond strategic ports, China's maneuvering includes creating financial infrastructure, like a South American gold corridor, as part of a larger strategy to establish a gold-backed currency that could rival and undermine the US dollar's status as the world's reserve currency.
Ahamed argues bimetallism remained stable through massive metal supply shocks when central banks coordinated reserve management. The system unraveled primarily because Bismarck imposed harsh reparations on France and forced Germany onto the gold standard to punish France economically.
In an act of financial warfare, post-war Germany sold its vast silver reserves to adopt the gold standard, intentionally harming France’s bimetallic system. This collapsed silver prices, sparking a global scramble for gold. The resulting shortage of the world's primary safe asset caused a severe credit crunch and a two-decade-long deflationary spiral.
Economist Milton Friedman believed politicians must make promises they can't afford, leading to debt creation and currency debasement. He saw the "price" of gold rising not on its own merit, but as a direct consequence of the U.S. dollar inevitably losing value, like all past currencies.
While many point to ending the gold standard in 1971, the true catalyst for modern economic problems was the 1913 creation of the central bank. This act laid the foundation for the systemic debt creation and currency debasement that fuel today's inflation and inequality.
The recent surge in gold prices is more than an inflation hedge. It's a leading indicator of a fundamental breakdown in the global monetary system, anticipating a future with restricted capital movement and increased government intervention in savings, making gold a key strategic asset.
Global central banks are buying gold not just as a hedge against the US dollar, but as a tacit admission of concern about the long-term value of all fiat currencies, including their own. This move signals a flight to a historical store of value amid fears of widespread currency devaluation.
For most of history, gold was simply money and offered minimal real returns (~0.4%). Since the global move to a fiat system in 1971, where currency is backed by nothing, gold has performed exceptionally well as an alternative to paper money.
Alan Greenspan viewed a rising gold price as a market signal that monetary policy was too loose and interest rates were too low. Today's soaring gold price, viewed through this lens, suggests the Federal Reserve is making a significant policy error by considering rate cuts.