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Trump announced Stephen Hubbard's release without a swap, but the host notes Trump likely preemptively removed Russian diesel sanctions. That makes the free release misleading because it gives Putin leverage to keep cooperation going. The host thinks Trump is now pressuring Zelensky instead.

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In a seemingly contradictory wartime move, the administration is allowing countries like Iran and Russia to sell their oil. The primary goal is to manage the massive political and economic problem of spiking gas prices, even if it means temporarily empowering an enemy.

Donald Trump's plea for Ukraine to stop hitting Russian diesel infrastructure, while seemingly pro-Russia, is a starkly practical take on global economics. He understands that a global diesel shortage causes widespread inflation and hardship that ultimately weakens international support and affects everyone, making it a counterproductive long-term strategy.

Tom reads Trump's tweet and says the back-and-forth looks chaotic from outside. He maps Putin as a KGB manipulator who controls when the war ends and can take early concessions, rebuild his coffers, then reject terms. Without a hard line, Trump's desire for peace becomes leverage for Putin.

A potential US diesel export ban has a cynical, second-order strategic purpose. By cutting off supply to Europe, the US could inflict enough economic pain to force its allies to pressure Ukraine into a settlement with Russia, achieving US policy goals through indirect economic coercion.

Trump paused sanctions in a new bipartisan bill that passed the Senate 86 to 11, saying it was in the national interest. GOP Senator Tom Tillis called it beyond irresponsible, and Zelensky said it rewards Putin. Even Republicans like Ted Cruz and Nikki Haley criticized the move.

A peace plan, largely drafted without Ukrainian input and containing unfavorable terms, has emerged just as President Zelenskyy's government faces its biggest corruption crisis. This timing suggests the US may be using Ukraine's internal turmoil to push for otherwise unacceptable concessions.

Reports say Putin is floating a summit with Trump and Xi; Scott Galloway says if Zelensky isn't at the table, Ukraine is on the menu. He compares abandoning Ukraine to partnering with 1940s Germany, notes most Americans side with Ukraine, and calls it the administration's most damaging long-term decision.

The host says Trump couldn't get what he wanted from Putin, so he turned to Zelensky, whom he sees as weaker. The host calls it mercenary rather than revenge: Trump respects Putin's strongman path and will pressure whoever he can move. This shapes the Ukraine endgame.

Leaked communications reveal a conscious strategy to manipulate Donald Trump in negotiations. By advising Russian counterparts to begin calls by praising Trump's past deals, negotiators like Witkoff leverage his psychological vulnerabilities to steer conversations toward a favorable outcome.

Relaxing sanctions on Russian diesel risks funneling significant financial capital directly back into the military effort. Concurrently, because the impacted supply forms a tiny percentage of the global market, international drivers and consumers may experience minimal price relief.