Iran is threatening to escalate military actions beyond the Strait of Hormuz into the Indian Ocean. This expands the risk to global oil supply chains, including crucial ship-to-ship transfers, suggesting a widening economic and physical conflict that could further spike crude prices.
A potential 90-day US diesel export ban is not just a flawed economic policy but a strategic weapon. It could create global shortages, enabling the administration to selectively grant exemptions to allies who "kiss the ring," thereby enforcing loyalty and consolidating its geopolitical influence.
Canada's strategy of distancing itself from the U.S. has led its military to simulate a potential U.S. invasion. This reveals the severe geopolitical risk, as the U.S. is unlikely to tolerate a strategic competitor with ties to China or a divergent Europe on its long, undefended border.
The US-China rivalry is not a bilateral conflict but a clash between multi-national blocs. The US is consolidating allies in its sphere, while China actively coordinates with Russia, Iran, and North Korea on military technology and support, creating a complex global chessboard.
To deter a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, the U.S. may be pursuing a strategy of global destabilization. Keeping the Middle East volatile ensures that any large-scale military action by China would coincide with soaring oil prices and severe energy shortages, making an invasion unviable.
China is likely using open-source AI not to innovate, but as an economic weapon. By releasing free models that are slightly behind the US frontier, it aims to disrupt the business models of capital-intensive American AI companies, potentially bankrupting them before they can achieve strategic dominance.
The U.S. may be strategically allowing private and international capital to fund the race to Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). If a private company achieves a breakthrough, the government is likely to nationalize it for security, leaving investors with nothing, similar to the Manhattan Project.
In an era of great power competition, open academic collaboration is a national security liability. The flow of information and personnel allows rivals like China to exploit apolitical, naive, or corruptible academics, draining the West of its most advanced research and technology.
Previously taboo, the use of tactical nuclear weapons is entering mainstream strategic discussions. The US might consider it against Iran's fortified nuclear sites, and Russia against Ukraine. This shift indicates a dangerous escalation in geopolitical risk where limited nuclear use is no longer unthinkable.