The Trump-Xi summit lacks a deep policy agenda. Its primary purpose is for Trump to create a spectacle and change the news cycle, flipping the traditional dynamic where the US trades symbolism for Chinese concessions. The meeting is more about optics for Trump than substantive diplomacy.
U.S.-China relations are moving in two directions at once. The personal relationship between leaders forms a fragile "upward leg" of diplomacy, while underlying competitive realities create a "downward leg." This dynamic is unstable and could fall apart as the two vectors diverge.
The dynamic of U.S.-China relations has shifted so dramatically that actions once considered American concessions, like selling advanced semiconductors, are now perceived as concessions from Beijing to the U.S. This reflects the narrowing power imbalance between the two superpowers.
Rather than focusing solely on China's potential economic decline, strategists should prepare for the personal decline of Xi Jinping. As autocratic leaders age in power, their behavior, obsessions, and decision-making can change unpredictably, introducing a profound source of global instability.
Unlike American AI leaders who openly speculate about unsolved existential risks, Chinese officials only name risks they can also claim to be managing, like regime stability. For the CCP, publicly naming a risk is an assertion of control and capability, not an admission of uncertainty.
The argument that the U.S. must avoid AI regulation to compete with China is fragile. Once a significant negative event occurs—like widespread job loss or a major accident—domestic concerns will overwhelm geopolitical competition, making immediate regulation the primary political focus.
For Xi Jinping's visit, the Chinese government's primary anxiety is not a deliberate diplomatic trap, but the potential for unscripted blunders from Washington's chaotic environment. This lack of micromanaged certainty is a key source of anxiety for a system built on total control of a leader's image.
The appeal of high-level diplomacy with China for American leaders is partly rooted in a desire to inhabit the powerful archetype of figures like Kissinger and Nixon. This isn't just about China; it's about an American leader's self-image and their vision of acting on the world stage.