Max Levchin claims any single data point that seems to dramatically improve underwriting accuracy is a red herring. He argues these 'magic bullets' are brittle and fail when market conditions shift. A robust risk model instead relies on aggregating small lifts from many subtle factors.

Scott Goodwin highlights that while major banks report stable consumer credit, they overlook the explosive growth of online lenders like Upstart and SoFi. This hidden leverage, often ending up on insurance company balance sheets, means the US consumer is far more indebted than traditional metrics suggest.

By eliminating outdated constraints like the six-month activity rule and incorporating time-series data and alternative inputs like rent payments, modern credit scoring models can assess millions of creditworthy individuals, such as military personnel or young people, who were previously unscorable.

Recent stress in credit card and auto loan markets is concentrated in loans originated in 2021-2023 when stimulus and looser standards prevailed. Lenders have since tightened, and newer loan portfolios are performing better, suggesting the problem is not spreading systemically.

Affirm's CEO suggests competitors don't report payment data to credit bureaus as a business strategy. By keeping delinquencies off the 'permanent record,' they can implicitly encourage late payments, from which they profit via fees. Affirm, having no late fees, advocates for full reporting.

The dramatic rise in BNPL usage across all demographics, including 41% of young shoppers, is a negative forward-looking indicator. While framed as innovation, it's a form of modern usury that reveals consumers cannot afford their purchases, creating a significant, under-discussed credit risk for the economy.

Merchants pay BNPL providers like Affirm more than credit card processors for three key benefits: converting hesitant buyers ('incremental sales'), ensuring high approval rates so the option is useful, and protecting their brand from association with lenders who charge punitive fees.

If you have a business model with a proven high LTV-to-CAC ratio but it's constrained by slow cash collection (e.g., 90-day payment terms), the solution isn't to change the model. Instead, solve the cash conversion cycle issue with Accounts Receivable (AR) financing. This allows you to scale aggressively without disrupting a winning formula.

By eliminating late fees and compounding interest, Affirm removes any financial upside from borrower mistakes. This forces the company's business model to depend solely on successful repayment, demanding superior, transaction-by-transaction underwriting to survive.