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The current cost of attention on Facebook and Instagram presents a fleeting arbitrage opportunity similar to the early days of Google AdWords. Failing to aggressively invest now is a mistake that businesses will regret once the platforms become appropriately priced.
By paying a creator a flat monthly fee (e.g., $900) for daily posts, brands can achieve a cost per thousand impressions (CPM) of around $2. This is a significant discount compared to the average $6 CPM on platforms like Facebook, representing a major marketing arbitrage opportunity.
Marketers chasing trends on 'cool' platforms like TikTok create an imbalance where massive, older platforms have huge audiences consuming features like Facebook Reels but few creators serving them. This supply/demand gap for attention creates a significant, underpriced marketing opportunity.
We are in an unprecedented and temporary period where the world's attention is concentrated on platforms that allow free access to it. This is a historical anomaly akin to free television ads. Businesses that fail to capitalize on this massive, free opportunity for growth will profoundly regret it once the window closes.
Frame marketing strategy not as managing channels, but as "day-trading attention." Identify platforms where user attention is high but advertising costs are low due to a lack of saturation from major brands. This arbitrage opportunity allows smaller players to achieve outsized results before the market corrects.
Think of social media platforms like real estate markets. The greatest returns come from identifying and investing in "emerging neighborhoods" (like TikTok in 2018) before they become saturated and expensive. Being an early adopter on a new platform is the digital equivalent of buying beachfront property decades ago.
Facebook's main 'Blue' app is an underpriced attention channel. Contrary to popular belief, usage among 22-32 year olds is surprisingly high due to features like Marketplace and Groups, but it's often unacknowledged. This creates a significant arbitrage opportunity for marketers who can reach this demographic at a lower cost than on more saturated platforms.
Early platforms like TikTok are 'beachfront property' because user attention (demand) vastly outstrips the amount of content and ads (supply). This creates a huge opportunity for organic reach. Mature platforms like Instagram are saturated, making it exponentially harder to gain attention.
In the past, Facebook ads were so underpriced that even mediocre creative could generate a positive ROAS through sheer volume. As platform costs have risen, that financial arbitrage opportunity has disappeared, forcing marketers to rely on high-quality creative as the primary driver of performance.
Marketers flock to the newest, trendiest platforms, creating a vacuum on established ones. Facebook proper, for instance, has an enormous user base of 45-80 year olds with significant disposable income, yet it is often ignored by contemporary marketers, making it a prime arbitrage opportunity.
The cost to acquire attention on platforms like Facebook and Instagram is currently inefficiently low, similar to Google AdWords in its early days. This window of opportunity will inevitably close as the market matures and prices rise to reflect their true value.