Contrary to popular belief, the market may be getting less efficient. The dominance of indexing, quant funds, and multi-manager pods—all with short time horizons—creates dislocations. This leaves opportunities for long-term investors to buy valuable assets that are neglected because their path to value creation is uncertain.

The Outsourced CIO (OCIO) model has evolved through three phases. After a governance-focused start (Phase 1) and a period where simple beta portfolios thrived (Phase 2), the current environment of lower expected returns and higher inflation (Phase 3) demands a true "alpha engine." Execution quality and customization are now the key differentiators.

To ensure genuine collaboration across funds, Centerbridge structures compensation so a "substantial minority" of an individual's pay comes from other areas of the firm. This economic incentive forces a firm-wide perspective and makes being "part of one team" a financial reality, not just a cultural slogan.

In a world of highly skilled money managers, absolute skill becomes table stakes and luck plays a larger role in outcomes. According to Michael Mauboussin's "paradox of skill," an allocator's job is to identify managers whose *relative* skill—a specific, durable edge—still dominates results.

WCM realized their portfolio became too correlated because their research pipeline itself was the root cause, with analysts naturally chasing what was working. To fix this, they built custom company categorization tools to force diversification at the idea generation stage, ensuring a broader set of opportunities is always available.

Many LPs focus solely on backing the 'best people.' However, a manager's chosen strategy and market (the 'neighborhood') is a more critical determinant of success. A brilliant manager playing a difficult game may underperform a good manager in a structurally advantaged area.

Centerbridge initially sought investors equally skilled in PE and credit, a "switch hitter" model they found unrealistic. They evolved to a "majors and minors" approach, allowing professionals to specialize in one area while gaining significant experience in the other. This fosters deep expertise without sacrificing the firm's integrated strategy.

The era of generating returns through leverage and multiple expansion is over. Future success in PE will come from driving revenue growth, entering at lower multiples, and adding operational expertise, particularly in the fragmented middle market where these opportunities are more prevalent.

A fund manager's fiduciary duty incentivizes them to trade potentially higher, more volatile returns for guaranteed, quicker multiples (e.g., a 3.5x over a 7x). Unlike a personal investor who can accept high dispersion (big winners, total losses), a GP must prioritize returning capital to LPs like pensions and endowments.