The worst feeling for an investor is not missing a successful deal they didn't understand, but investing against their own judgment in a company that ultimately fails. This emotional cost of violating one's own conviction outweighs the FOMO of passing on a hot deal.

This "via negativa" approach, inspired by Sun Tzu and Charlie Munger, posits that the easiest way to improve returns is by systematically avoiding common mistakes. Instead of trying to be brilliant, investors should focus on not doing "dumb stuff," as it's easier to identify what leads to failure than what guarantees success.

Even a top-tier sales professional has a career pitch win rate of just 50-60%. Success isn't about an unbeatable record, but a relentless focus on analyzing failures. Remembering and learning from every lost deal is more critical for long-term improvement than celebrating wins.

Post-mortems of bad investments reveal the cause is never a calculation error but always a psychological bias or emotional trap. Sequoia catalogs ~40 of these, including failing to separate the emotional 'thrill of the chase' from the clinical, objective assessment required for sound decision-making.

Ken Griffin argues businesses over-analyze failures. Instead, they should dissect successes to understand the "flywheel" that drives growth. Identifying what you did right in a sales process, for example, is more valuable for creating repeatable wins than dwelling on rejections.

A crucial, yet unquantifiable, component of alpha is avoiding catastrophic losses. Jeff Aronson points to spending years analyzing companies his firm ultimately passed on. While this discipline doesn't appear as a positive return on a performance sheet, the act of rigorously saying "no" is a real, though invisible, driver of long-term success.

While it's easy to regret known bad decisions, like passing on an investment, the far greater mistakes are the unseen ones. The meeting you canceled or the connection you didn't pursue could have been the pivotal moment of your career. This mindset liberates you from the fear of making visible errors and encourages action.

Seemingly costly failures provide the unique stories, data, and scars necessary to teach from experience. This authentic foundation is what allows an audience to trust your guidance, turning past losses into future credibility.

A founder's retrospective analysis often reveals that delayed decisions were the correct ones, and the only regret is not acting sooner. Recognizing this pattern—that you rarely regret moving too fast—can serve as a powerful heuristic to trust your gut and accelerate decision-making, as inaction is often the biggest risk.