The "winner-takes-most" nature of marketplace businesses means that even an industry leader can operate for over a decade before achieving profitability. This model demands immense capital investment to survive a long, costly war of attrition to establish network effects.

Applying Peter Thiel's "Zero to One" philosophy, Anduril intentionally avoided crowded marketplaces when it launched in 2017. By focusing on a defense sector completely devoid of venture-backed startups, they secured an incredible head start and built a defensible business before competitors emerged.

While OpenAI's projected losses dwarf those of past tech giants, the strategic goal is similar to Uber's: spend aggressively to achieve market dominance. If OpenAI becomes the definitive "front door to AI," the enormous upfront investment could be justified by the value of that monopoly position.

While OpenAI's projected multi-billion dollar losses seem astronomical, they mirror the historical capital burns of companies like Uber, which spent heavily to secure market dominance. If the end goal is a long-term monopoly on the AI interface, such a massive investment can be justified as a necessary cost to secure a generational asset.

Unlike traditional contractors paid for time and materials, Anduril invests its own capital to develop products first. This 'defense product company' model aligns incentives with the government's need for speed and effectiveness, as profits are tied to rapid, successful delivery, not prolonged development cycles.

Many defense startups fail despite superior technology because the government isn't ready to purchase at scale. Anduril's success hinges on identifying when the customer is ready to adopt new capabilities within a 3-5 year window, making market timing its most critical decision factor.

Companies tackling moonshots like autonomous vehicles (Waymo) or AGI (OpenAI) face a decade or more of massive capital burn before reaching profitability. Success depends as much on financial engineering to maintain capital flow as it does on technological breakthroughs.

Defense tech firm Anduril's talks to raise funds at a $60 billion valuation reflect its ambition to become a "prime" contractor. The company is no longer just a disruptive upstart; it's actively trying to join the exclusive group of legacy giants like Raytheon and Lockheed that dominate government contracts.

Unlike software firms that see growth decelerate over time, hardware giants like SpaceX and Anduril can accelerate growth at scale. As they get bigger, they earn trust to tackle larger problems and access bigger markets, creating a geometric, not linear, growth curve.