Successful people with unconventional paths ('dark horses') avoid rigid five or ten-year plans. Like early-stage founders, they focus on making the best immediate choice that aligns with their fulfillment, maintaining the agility to pivot. This iterative approach consistently outperforms fixed, long-term roadmaps.
Conventional wisdom to 'stay focused' is flawed. Breakthrough growth often comes from making many small, exploratory bets. YipitData's success wasn't from perfecting one thing, but from the one small, tangential bet each year that drove 90% of the growth while others failed.
Unlike traditional software development, AI-native founders avoid long-term, deterministic roadmaps. They recognize that AI capabilities change so rapidly that the most effective strategy is to maximize what's possible *now* with fast iteration cycles, rather than planning for a speculative future.
Since startups lack infinite time and money, an investor's key diligence question is whether the team can learn and iterate fast enough to find a valuable solution before resources run out. This 'learning velocity' is more important than initial traction or a perfect starting plan.
The conventional path demands you follow a standardized track and just be 'better.' Unconventionally successful people ('dark horses') invert this. They prioritize personal fulfillment, and professional excellence becomes the natural byproduct of that authentic pursuit.
Instead of chasing trends or pivoting every few weeks, founders should focus on a singular mission that stems from their unique expertise and conviction. This approach builds durable, meaningful companies rather than simply chasing valuations.
Vinod Khosla's core philosophy is that only improbable, black-swan events create significant change. Since you can't predict which improbable event will matter, the correct strategy is to build maximum agility and adaptability to seize opportunities as they arise.
In dynamic markets like AI, where technology and business models evolve rapidly, the founding team's quality ('the jockey') becomes more critical than the initial business plan ('the horse'). The ability of a small, talented team to pivot and execute on new opportunities is the key determinant of success.
The firm distinguishes between speed (magnitude) and velocity (magnitude plus direction). Founders are encouraged to focus on velocity, ensuring the entire team is moving quickly *in the right direction*. This prevents wasted effort where mere motion is mistaken for progress, a common trap in turbulent markets.
Diller’s process for navigating the unknown isn't about brilliance but relentless iteration. He describes it as taking "one dumb step" at a time, bouncing off the walls of bad ideas and mistakes, and course-correcting. This embraces looking foolish as a prerequisite for finding the right path.
The motivation to start a company wasn't about a guaranteed outcome but about embracing the ultimate test of one's capabilities. The realization that most founders, regardless of experience, are figuring it out as they go is empowering. It reframes the founder journey from a path for experts to a challenge for the determined.