Large corporations can afford lobbyists and consultants to navigate geopolitical shifts, but their size makes strategic pivots notoriously difficult. This creates opportunities for agile startups and SMEs, which can adapt their strategies and organizations much faster to the changing landscape.
Unlike previous tech waves that trickled down from large institutions, AI adoption is inverted. Individuals are the fastest adopters, followed by small businesses, with large corporations and governments lagging. This reverses the traditional power dynamic of technology access and creates new market opportunities.
Incumbent companies are slowed by the need to retrofit AI into existing processes and tribal knowledge. AI-native startups, however, can build their entire operational model around agent-based, prompt-driven workflows from day one, creating a structural advantage that is difficult for larger companies to copy.
Luckey reveals that Anduril prioritized institutional engagement over engineering in its early days, initially hiring more lawyers and lobbyists. The biggest challenge wasn't building the technology, but convincing the Department of Defense and political stakeholders to believe in a new procurement model, proving that shaping the system is a prerequisite for success.
Twenty years ago, globalization and open markets (geopolitical tailwinds) created new opportunities for businesses. Today, rising nationalism, trade barriers, and security concerns act as headwinds, creating obstacles and increasing the complexity of international operations.
Unlike mobile or internet shifts that created openings for startups, AI is an "accelerating technology." Large companies can integrate it quickly, closing the competitive window for new entrants much faster than in previous platform shifts. The moat is no longer product execution but customer insight.
Small firms can outmaneuver large corporations in the AI era by embracing rapid, low-cost experimentation. While enterprises spend millions on specialized PhDs for single use cases, agile companies constantly test new models, learn from failures, and deploy what works to dominate their market.
When competing against a resourceful incumbent, a startup's key advantage is speed. Bizzabo outmaneuvered its rival during the pandemic by launching a virtual solution in weeks, not months. This agility allows challenger brands to seize market shifts that larger players are too slow to address.
Large platforms focus on massive opportunities right in front of them ('gold bricks at their feet'). They consciously ignore even valuable markets that require more effort ('gold bricks 100 feet away'). This strategic neglect creates defensible spaces for startups in those niche areas.
Geopolitical shifts mean a company's country of origin heavily influences its market access and tariff burdens. This "corporate nationality" creates an uneven playing field, where a business's location can instantly become a massive advantage or liability compared to competitors.
Ken Griffin warns startups against direct, head-on competition with industry giants, stating, "you're going to lose." To succeed, you must find an asymmetrical advantage—operating "under the radar" or solving niche problems incumbents ignore. Citadel initially did this by hiring unconventional quantitative talent.