Apps with questionable premises, like gambling to pay off debt, often receive public scorn on social media (e.g., extremely low like-to-view ratios). This negative sentiment is a poor predictor of success, as these apps can quietly build massive businesses by serving a real, albeit hidden, user need.
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New platforms frame betting on future events as sophisticated 'trading,' akin to stock markets. This rebranding as 'prediction markets' helps them bypass traditional gambling regulations and attract users who might otherwise shun betting, positioning it as an intellectual or financial activity rather than a game of chance.
Netflix's top show, "Nobody Wants This," faces criticism for excessive, unnatural product placement—a form of "inshittification." Yet, it remains the #1 streamed show. This suggests that in the current attention economy, even negative buzz or a compromised user experience can successfully drive top-line engagement metrics.
In today's hype-driven AI market, founders must ignore 'false signals' like media attention and investor interest. These metrics have zero, or even negative, correlation with building a useful product. The only signal that matters is genuine user love and feedback from actual customers.
Data analysis of 105,000 headlines reveals a direct financial incentive for negativity in media. Each negative word added to an average-length headline increases its click-through rate by more than two percentage points, creating an economic model that systematically rewards outrage.
Investing in founders like Rippling's Parker Conrad or Anduril's Palmer Luckey post-controversy is a bet that the media narrative was wrong and they were unfairly 'thrown under the bus.' It's a high-conviction strategy focused on backing resilient individuals who emerge from public firestorms stronger and more focused.
Startups like 'Chad IDE' are moving beyond using outrage for marketing. Their core product differentiation—like integrating gambling into a code editor—is the rage bait itself. This strategy risks alienating potential investors, customers, and talent, who may actively root for the company's downfall.
Receiving negative or controversial feedback on social media indicates your work is opinionated and differentiated enough to provoke a reaction. Rather than a failure, this is a sign of market impact and having a distinct point of view.
Prediction markets are accelerating their normalization by integrating directly into established ecosystems. Partnerships with Google, Robinhood, and the NYSE's owner embed gambling-like activities into everyday financial and informational tools, lowering barriers to entry and lending them legitimacy.
The IVF company Nucleus ran a subway campaign with provocative slogans like 'Have your best baby' to deliberately anger a segment of the population. This 'rage bait' strategy manufactures virality in controversial industries, leveraging negative reactions to gain widespread attention that would otherwise be difficult to achieve.
A VC firm's brand can be disproportionately defined by its most controversial investments, even if they represent a tiny fraction of the fund's capital. A single high-engagement, 'slop' company can easily overshadow a portfolio of solid, less sensational businesses in the public eye.
