Faced with massive debt, governments have five options: austerity, default, high growth, hyperinflation, or financial repression. Napier argues repression—keeping inflation above interest rates to erode debt—is the most politically acceptable path, just as it was post-WWII.

Kevin Warsh advocates for a nuanced economic policy that avoids both the short-termism of temporary stimulus checks and the punishing effects of pure fiscal austerity. His approach focuses on pro-growth supply-side reforms like simplifying the tax code and reducing regulation to foster long-term investment rather than just reinflating consumer bubbles.

Global governments are actively pursuing policies (running economies hot, suppressing energy costs, managing rates down) to create a period of artificial prosperity. This is a deliberate strategy to push a massive debt sustainability crisis further into the future, which will feel great until it doesn't.

Economist Arthur Laffer argues that debt is merely a tool. Debt used for productive investments that generate high returns (e.g., Reagan's tax cuts to spur growth) can be beneficial. In contrast, debt used for non-productive purposes (e.g., paying people not to work) is destructive to the economy.

Tariffs are politically useful in a fiscal crisis because they function as a hidden consumption tax. They allow politicians to claim they're taxing foreigners and protecting the nation, while the revenue raised is insufficient to solve the debt problem and domestic consumers bear the cost.

Contrary to traditional economic cycles where high demand prompts capacity expansion, the current driver is tariff mitigation. Companies are investing in US production to avoid import costs, a motivation that doesn't require a strong consumer goods market. The existing $1.2T trade deficit provides the "demand" to be recaptured domestically.

With debt-to-GDP at 130%, the implicit policy is to use inflation to devalue the debt burden. This is becoming explicit, with proposals like using tariff money for direct stimulus checks. This strategy favors risk assets and creates a 'full on euphoria tech bubble' if real yields go negative again.

Tyler Cowen predicts the US will eventually resort to several years of ~7% inflation to manage its national debt. This strategy, while damaging to living standards, is politically more palatable than raising taxes or cutting spending. Rapid, AI-driven productivity growth is the only plausible alternative to this outcome.

Despite expected legislative gridlock, investors should focus on the executive branch. The president's most impactful market tools, such as tariff policy and deregulation via executive agencies, do not require congressional approval. Significant policy shifts can therefore occur even when Congress is divided and inactive.