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Unlike its rival Coca-Cola, PepsiCo earns over half its revenue from packaged foods. This diversification became a liability when the company raised food prices well above inflation and competitors post-pandemic. The resulting consumer backlash is a key driver of its recent market cap slump while Coke's has risen.
Brands are now combining price hikes with "shrinkflation," a tactic dubbed "maximiniflation." Milka chocolate, for example, raised its price and reduced its bar size, causing a 20% sales drop in Germany. Consumers are now hyper-aware of these dual tactics, making it a critical risk for brand reputation.
The adage "you don't know your price until the customer says no" is useful for finding a price ceiling. However, PepsiCo's experience shows the danger of ignoring persistent rejection. Four years of declining sales demonstrated a fundamental value proposition problem, not just an optimized price point, which melted their stock.
Pricing power allows a brand to raise prices without losing customers, effectively fighting the economic principle that demand falls as price rises. This is achieved by creating a brand perception so strong that consumers believe there is no viable substitute.
Facing sales declines, Chipotle is raising prices to target its affluent customers (making >$100K), while Pepsi cut prices to serve the mass market. This reveals a critical strategy for a bifurcated economy: straddling the middle fails, so businesses must decisively target either the upper or lower end of the market.
Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG) companies drove revenue through price increases, but this came at the cost of falling volumes. By pushing prices closer to the perceived value, they eliminated the "consumer surplus"—the extra value a customer feels they get. This made private label alternatives more attractive and damaged long-term brand relevance.
PepsiCo's restaurant division failed not due to bad products, but because the parent company imposed its "packaged goods" processes on a "service" business. Recognizing and resolving this deep cultural incompatibility, even by spinning off the unit, was the key to unlocking the division's true value and allowing it to thrive independently.
To break a decades-long stalemate with Pepsi, a Coca-Cola CEO reframed their market from "share of soda" to "share of all liquids." This shifted their market share from 50% to 0.5%, unlocking new growth avenues like bottled water (Dasani) and ultimately dominating the beverage industry.
As consumers shift away from sugary drinks, Coca-Cola's dominance in the diet and health-conscious space is a key driver of its outperformance. Americans drink 2.5 times more Diet Coke than Diet Pepsi, and Coca-Cola was quicker to expand into adjacent healthy categories like protein shakes, capturing a consumer base that Pepsi struggles to win.
After a 38% price hike led to four years of declining sales, PepsiCo is cutting prices. Consumers didn't stop snacking; they switched to cheaper store brands from retailers like Walmart and Costco. This shows that even for iconic brands, there is a ceiling to pricing power before customers abandon them for better value.
While often seen as greedy, companies may raise prices during crises as a defensive measure. Facing immense uncertainty about supply chains and future costs, they act paranoid to ensure they can weather a potentially long storm, even if it means overreacting in the short term.