A stark divergence exists between America's two primary employment surveys. From January to May, the payroll survey (from businesses) reported a 400,000 job gain, while the household survey showed a loss of over 300,000 jobs. This contradiction makes it difficult to get a clear read on the labor market's true health.

A 22% year-over-year rise in business bankruptcies seems alarming, but it's partially a natural consequence of the post-pandemic surge in new business formations. A higher number of startups leads to more failures, reflecting entrepreneurial churn rather than just economic weakness.

The reported 123,000 job gain in healthcare, which accounted for most of January's headline strength, was not due to an economic boom. It was a statistical artifact caused by unusual seasonal adjustment patterns. Job gains that should have appeared in late 2025 were instead shifted into January's report.

The headline payroll gain of 115,000 jobs was not broad-based. Nearly the entire increase came from just three sectors: Healthcare, Transportation/Warehousing, and Retail. Most other industries were flat or slightly down, masking a lack of widespread strength in the labor market.

Recent reports of rising unemployment are skewed by significant cuts in government jobs, which fell by 162,000 in two months. Over the same period, the private sector added 121,000 jobs, indicating underlying economic strength obscured by the headline numbers and public sector downsizing.

The unexpectedly high job gains in leisure/hospitality and local government are likely statistical anomalies, not fundamental strength. For leisure/hospitality, the unadjusted data was similar to last year, but a different seasonal factor created a 67,000-job gap. The government hiring surge appears to be a timing shift from June.

Gusto's economist reports that small businesses added 120,000 jobs in March 2026, the highest since 2022. He argues that agile small businesses have already pivoted past recent economic shocks, leading a recovery while large companies are still slowly adapting.

Revealio Labs scrapes 105M US professional profiles, primarily from LinkedIn. To correct for biases (e.g., overrepresentation of tech workers), they reweight the data using BLS industry and occupation statistics. A Bayesian model then adjusts for the typical 3-month lag in users updating their job status, enabling a real-time 'nowcast'.

Contrary to strong headline job numbers, Gusto's platform data shows that hiring among existing small businesses remains depressed. However, this weakness is offset by a significant increase in the formation of new businesses and new employers, painting a more nuanced picture of the American economy's health.